UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-K

For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012

or

For the transition period from                          to                          

Commission File Number 001-09463

RLI CORP.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code (309) 692-1000

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act: NONE

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is a well-known seasoned issuer, as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act. Yes x No o

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is not required to file reports pursuant to Section 13 or Section 15(d) of the Exchange Act. Yes o No x

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files). Yes x No o

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes x No o

Indicate by check mark if disclosure of delinquent filers pursuant to Item 405 of Regulation S-K is not contained herein, and will not be contained, to the best of registrant’s knowledge, in definitive proxy or information statements incorporated by reference in Part III of this Form 10-K or any amendment to this Form 10-K. x

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, or a smaller reporting company.  See the definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer” and “smaller reporting company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes o No x

The aggregate market value of the registrant’s common stock held by non-affiliates of the Registrant as of June 30, 2012, based upon the closing sale price of the Common Stock on June 30, 2012 as reported on the New York Stock Exchange, was $1,282,418,887. Shares of Common Stock held directly or indirectly by each reporting officer and director along with shares held by the Company ESOP have been excluded in that such persons may be deemed to be affiliates. This determination of affiliate status is not necessarily a conclusive determination for other purposes.

The number of shares outstanding of the Registrant’s Common Stock, $1.00 par value, on February 13, 2013 was 21,270,409.

DOCUMENTS INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE.

Portions of the 2012 Annual Report to Shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2012, are incorporated by reference into Parts I and II of this document.

Portions of the Registrant’s definitive Proxy Statement for the 2013 annual meeting of shareholders to be held May 2, 2013, are incorporated herein by reference into Part III of this document.

Exhibit index is located on pages 59-60 of this document, which lists documents filed as exhibits or incorporated by reference herein.

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PART I

Item 1.  Business

RLI Corp. underwrites selected property and casualty insurance through major subsidiaries collectively known as RLI Insurance Group. We conduct operations principally through four insurance companies. These companies are organized in a vertical structure beneath RLI Corp. with RLI Insurance Company (RLI Ins.) as the first-level, or principal, insurance subsidiary. RLI Ins. writes multiple lines of insurance on an admitted basis in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Mt. Hawley Insurance Company (Mt. Hawley), a subsidiary of RLI Ins., writes surplus lines insurance in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam. RLI Indemnity Company (RIC), a subsidiary of Mt. Hawley, has authority to write multiple lines of insurance on an admitted basis in 48 states and the District of Columbia. Contractors Bonding and Insurance Company (CBIC), a subsidiary of RLI Ins., has authority to write multiple lines of insurance on an admitted basis in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We are an Illinois corporation that was organized in 1965. We have no material foreign operations.

We maintain an Internet website at http://www.rlicorp.com. We make available free of charge on our website our annual report on Form 10-K, our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K and amendments to those reports filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission as soon as reasonably practicable after such materials are filed or furnished. Information contained on our website is not intended to be incorporated by reference in this annual report and you should not consider that information a part of this annual report.

As a niche company with a specialty focus, we offer insurance coverages in both the specialty admitted and excess and surplus markets. Coverages in the specialty admitted market, such as our oil and gas surety bonds, are for risks that are unique or hard-to-place in the standard market, but must remain with an admitted insurance company for regulatory or marketing reasons. In addition, our coverages in the specialty admitted market may be designed to meet specific insurance needs of targeted insured groups, such as our professional liability and package coverages for design professionals and our stand-alone personal umbrella policy. The specialty admitted market is subject to more state regulation than the excess and surplus market, particularly with regard to rate and form filing requirements, restrictions on the ability to exit lines of business, premium tax payments and membership in various state associations, such as state guaranty funds and assigned risk plans. We also underwrite coverages in the excess and surplus market. The excess and surplus market, unlike the standard admitted market, is less regulated and more flexible in terms of policy forms and premium rates. This market provides an alternative for customers with risks or loss exposures that generally cannot be written in the standard market. This typically results in coverages that are more restrictive and more expensive than coverages in the standard market. When we underwrite within the excess and surplus market, we are selective in the lines of business and type of risks we choose to write. Using our non-admitted status in this market allows us to tailor terms and conditions to manage these exposures effectively. Often, the development of these coverages is generated through proposals brought to us by an agent or broker seeking coverage for a specific group of clients or loss exposures. Once a proposal is submitted, our underwriters determine whether it would be a viable product based on our business objectives.

We distribute our property and casualty insurance through our wholly-owned branch offices that market to wholesale producers. We also market certain coverages to retail producers from several of our casualty, surety and property operations. We also offer various reinsurance coverages which are distributed through brokers and on a direct basis. In addition, from time to time, we produce a limited amount of business under agreements with managing general agents under the direction of our product vice presidents.

For the year ended December 31, 2012, the following table provides the geographic distribution of our risks insured as represented by direct premiums earned for all coverages. For the year ended December 31, 2012, no other state accounted for 2 percent or more of total direct premiums earned for all coverages.

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In the ordinary course of business, we rely on other insurance companies to share risks through reinsurance. A large portion of the reinsurance is put into effect under contracts known as treaties and, in some instances, by negotiation on each individual risk (known as facultative reinsurance). We have quota share, excess of loss and catastrophe (CAT) reinsurance contracts that protect against losses over stipulated amounts arising from any one occurrence or event. These arrangements allow us to pursue greater diversification of business and serve to limit the maximum net loss on catastrophes and large risks. Reinsurance is subject to certain risks, specifically market risk, which affects the cost of and the ability to secure these contracts, and credit risk, which is the risk that our reinsurers may not pay on losses in a timely fashion or at all. The following table illustrates, through premium volume, the degree to which we have utilized reinsurance during the past three years. For an expanded discussion of the impact of reinsurance on our operations, see Note 5 to our audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2012 Annual Report to Shareholders, attached as Exhibit 13 and incorporated by reference herein.

Specialty Insurance Market Overview

The specialty insurance market differs significantly from the standard market. In the standard market, insurance rates and forms are highly regulated, products and coverage are largely uniform with relatively predictable exposures, and companies tend to compete for customers on the basis of price. In contrast, the specialty market provides coverage for risks that do not fit the underwriting criteria of the standard carriers. Competition tends to focus less on price and more on availability, service and other value-based considerations. While specialty market exposures may have higher insurance risks than their standard market counterparts, we manage these risks to achieve higher financial returns. To reach our financial and operational goals, we must have extensive knowledge and expertise in our markets. Most of our risks are underwritten on an individual basis and restricted limits, deductibles, exclusions and surcharges are employed in order to respond to distinctive risk characteristics. We operate in the excess and surplus insurance market, the specialty admitted insurance market and the specialty property reinsurance market.

Excess and Surplus Insurance Market

The excess and surplus market focuses on hard-to-place risks. Excess and surplus eligibility allows us to underwrite nonstandard market risks with more flexible policy forms and unregulated premium rates. This typically results in coverages that are more restrictive and more expensive than in the standard admitted market. The excess and surplus lines regulatory

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environment and production model also effectively filters submission flow and matches market opportunities to our expertise and appetite.  In 2012, the excess and surplus market represented approximately $22 billion, or 4 percent, of the entire $501 billion domestic property and casualty industry, as measured by direct premiums written. Our excess and surplus operations wrote gross premiums of $242.5 million, or 31 percent, of our total gross premiums written in 2012.

Specialty Admitted Insurance Market

We also write business in the specialty admitted market. Most of these risks are unique and hard to place in the standard market, but for marketing and regulatory reasons, they must remain with an admitted insurance company. The specialty admitted market is subject to greater state regulation than the excess and surplus market, particularly with regard to rate and form filing requirements, restrictions on the ability to exit lines of business, premium tax payments and membership in various state associations, such as state guaranty funds and assigned risk plans. For 2012, our specialty admitted operations wrote gross premiums of $468.9 million, representing approximately 60 percent of our total gross premiums written for the year.

Specialty Property Reinsurance Market

We write business in the specialty property reinsurance market. This business can be written on an individual risk (facultative) basis or on a portfolio (treaty) basis. We write contracts on an excess of loss and a proportional basis. Contract provisions are written and agreed upon between the company and its client, another (re)insurance company. The business is typically more volatile as a result of unique underlying exposures and excess and aggregate attachments. This business requires specialized underwriting and technical modeling. For 2012, our specialty property reinsurance operations wrote gross premiums of $73.4 million, representing approximately 9 percent of our total gross written premiums for the year.

Business Segment Overview

Our segment data is derived using the guidance set forth in FASB Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 280, “Segment Reporting.” As prescribed by the guidance, reporting is based on the internal structure and reporting of information as it is used by management. The segments of our insurance operations are casualty, property and surety. For additional information, see Note 11 to our audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2012 Annual Report to Shareholders, attached as Exhibit 13 and incorporated by reference herein.

Casualty Segment

General Liability

Our general liability business consists primarily of coverage for third party liability of commercial insureds including manufacturers, contractors, apartments, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and mercantile. We also offer coverages in the specialized area of environmental liability for underground storage tanks, contractors and asbestos and environmental remediation specialists. Net premiums earned from our general liability business totaled $85.0 million, $85.0 million and $96.6 million, or 13 percent, 14 percent and 17 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Commercial and Personal Umbrella Liability

Our commercial umbrella coverage is principally written in excess of primary liability insurance provided by other carriers and in excess of primary liability written by us. The personal umbrella coverage is written in excess of the homeowners and automobile liability coverage provided by other carriers, except in Hawaii, where some underlying homeowners’ coverage is written by us. In 2010, we broadened eligibility guidelines and offered certain coverage enhancements in an effort to broaden our market reach. In 2012, we experienced significant growth in sales of our commercial product to contractors, particularly in the eastern region of the country. Net premiums earned from this business totaled $68.3 million, $63.0 million and $61.4 million, or 10 percent, 10 percent and 11 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Commercial Transportation

Our transportation insurance provides automobile liability and physical damage insurance to local, intermediate and long haul truckers, public transportation risks and equipment dealers, along with other types of specialty commercial automobile risks.  We also offer incidental, related insurance coverages, including general liability and excess liability and motor truck cargo. Our highly experienced transportation underwriters produce business through independent agents and brokers nationwide. Net premiums earned from this business totaled $34.7 million, $34.1 million and $40.3 million, or 5 percent, 6 percent and 7 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

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CBIC Package Business

In April 2011, we acquired CBIC and affiliated companies. Approximately half of the business written by CBIC is admitted property and casualty packages offered to small contractors (ContracPac) and other small-to-medium sized “Main Street” retail businesses. The coverages included in these packages are predominantly general liability, but also have some property/inland marine coverages as well as automobile and excess/umbrella coverage. These products are predominantly marketed through retail agents. Net premiums earned from the CBIC package business totaled $28.5 million and $16.4 million, or 4 percent and 3 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012 and 2011, respectively.

Executive Products

We provide a variety of management professional liability coverages, such as directors and officers (D&O) liability insurance, employment practices liability, fiduciary liability, and fidelity coverages for a variety of low to moderate classes of risks. We tend to focus more on smaller accounts, as opposed to the large account sector which is generally more sensitive to price competition. Our target accounts include publicly traded companies with market capitalization below $5 billion (where we are writing part of the traditional D&O program), “Side A” coverage (where corporations cannot indemnify the individual D&Os), private companies, nonprofit organizations and sole-sponsored and multi-employer fiduciary liability accounts. Our primary focus for publicly traded companies is on providing “Side A” coverage. Additionally, we have had success rounding out our portfolio by writing more fiduciary liability coverage, primary and excess D&O coverage for private companies and non-profit organizations.  In 2011, we moved our miscellaneous professional liability business to our professional services group and combined our fidelity operation with our executive products group. Net premiums earned from the executive products business totaled $17.2 million, $15.5 million and $14.5 million, or 3 percent, 3 percent and 2 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Professional Services

We offer professional liability coverages focused on providing errors and omission coverage to small-to-medium size design professionals. In 2011, we combined our miscellaneous professional liability business into our design professionals group to form the professional services group. This group has focused on small-to-medium sized computer, technical, design and miscellaneous professionals. We have recently expanded our product suite to these same customers by offering a full array of multi-peril package products including general liability, property, automobile, excess liability, and worker’s compensation coverages. This business primarily markets its products through specialty retail agents throughout the country. Net premiums earned from the professional services group totaled $28.0 million, $13.2 million and $6.2 million, or 4 percent, 2 percent and 1 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Other

We offer a variety of other smaller products in our casualty segment, including in-home business insurance which provides limited liability and property coverage, on and off-site, for a variety of small business owners who work from their own home. We also have a number of programs that provide multiple, specialized coverages to a segmented customer base. We rely on program administrators to source these types of programs. In 2012, we expanded our offerings within the casualty segment through our newly launched security guards program. We also began offering medical malpractice coverage in 2012 with our acquisition of Rockbridge Underwriting Agency. Net premiums earned from these lines totaled $6.0 million, $9.0 million and $13.0 million, or 1 percent, 1 percent and 2 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Property Segment

Commercial

Our commercial property coverage consists primarily of excess and surplus lines and specialty insurance such as fire, earthquake and “difference in conditions,” which can include earthquake, wind, flood and collapse coverages. We provide insurance for a wide range of commercial and industrial risks, such as office buildings, apartments, condominiums and certain industrial and mercantile structures. Net premiums earned from the commercial property business totaled $74.2 million, $80.7 million and $80.5 million, or 11 percent, 13 percent and 14 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

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Marine

Our marine coverages include cargo, hull and protection and indemnity (P&I), marine liability, as well as inland marine coverages including builders’ risks, contractors’ equipment and other “floater” type coverages. Although the predominant exposures are located within the United States, there is some incidental international exposure written by this division. Net premiums earned from the marine business totaled $56.4 million, $51.7 million and $48.0 million, or 9 percent, 8 percent and 8 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Crop Reinsurance

We offer quota share crop reinsurance to crop insurers on multi-peril crop insurance (MPCI) and crop hail premium and exposure. Crop insurance is purchased by agricultural producers for protection against crop-related losses due to natural disasters and other perils.  The MPCI program is a partnership with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Crop insurers also issue policies that cover revenue shortfalls or production losses due to natural causes such as drought, excessive moisture, hail, wind, frost, insects, and disease. Net premiums earned from the crop reinsurance business totaled $24.5 million, $34.9 million and $27.1 million, or 4 percent, 6 percent and 5 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Property Reinsurance

We offer facultative and other treaty property reinsurance. The division underwrites property facultative reinsurance for insurance companies utilizing reinsurance intermediaries. The facultative unit specializes in buffer-layer carve-outs, excess and surplus property risks and other technical risks, such as power generation, requiring unique underwriting expertise. Perils covered range from fire and mechanical breakdown to flood and other catastrophic events. Although the predominant exposures are located within the United States, there is some incidental international exposure written by this division. This division also writes select specialty property treaties on a proportional basis. These treaties are portfolio underwritten using specialized actuarial models and cover catastrophic perils of earthquake, windstorm and other weather-related events, as well as some additional losses. In 2011, we expanded our treaty offerings by adding a specialty treaty unit that focuses on writing quota share and excess of loss treaties for small, regional companies. From time-to-time we have participated on a limited basis in capital market vehicles (Industry Loss Warranties/CAT bonds) to add narrowly defined, diversifying CAT risk. Net premiums earned from the property reinsurance business totaled $27.0 million, $19.9 million and $14.7 million, or 4 percent, 3 percent and 3 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Other

We offer a variety of other smaller programs in our property segment, including a limited amount of homeowners and dwelling fire insurance in Hawaii. In 2012, we expanded our offerings within the property segment through our newly launched recreational vehicles program. Net premiums earned from other property coverages totaled $20.3 million, $16.4 million and $11.4 million, or 3 percent, 3 percent and 2 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Surety Segment

Miscellaneous Surety

Our miscellaneous surety coverage includes small bonds for businesses and individuals written through approximately 10,000 independent insurance agencies throughout the United States. Examples of these types of bonds are license and permit, notary, and court bonds. These bonds are usually individually underwritten and utilize extensive automation tools for the underwriting and bond delivery to our agents. In April 2011, we acquired CBIC and affiliated entities. This acquisition added $11.4 million and $8.3 million of net premiums earned to miscellaneous surety in 2012 and 2011, respectively. Net premiums earned from miscellaneous surety coverages totaled $39.3 million, $34.8 million and $24.8 million, or 6 percent, 6 percent and 4 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Contract Surety

We offer bonds for small-to-medium sized contractors throughout the United States, underwritten on an account basis.  Typically, these are “Performance and Payment” bonds for individual construction contracts. These bonds are marketed through a select number of insurance agencies that have surety and construction expertise. We also offer bonds for small and emerging contractors that are reinsured through the federal small business administration. In April 2011, we acquired CBIC and affiliated entities. This acquisition added $8.7 million and $7.2 million of net premiums earned to contract surety in 2012 and 2011,

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respectively. Net premiums earned from contract surety coverages totaled $26.3 million, $24.4 million and $19.0 million, or 4 percent, 4 percent and 3 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Commercial Surety

We offer a large variety of commercial surety bonds for medium-to-large businesses. These risks are underwritten on an account basis and typically are for publicly traded corporations or their equivalent-sized private companies. This coverage is marketed through a select number of regional and national brokers with surety expertise. Net premiums earned from commercial surety coverages totaled $22.1 million, $21.3 million and $18.9 million, or 3 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010.

Oil and Gas Surety

Our oil and gas surety coverages provide commercial surety bonds for the energy, petrochemical and refining industries.  These risks are primarily underwritten on an account basis and are primarily marketed through insurance producers with expertise in these industries. Net premiums earned from oil and gas surety coverages totaled $18.7 million, $18.1 million and $17.0 million, or 3 percent of consolidated revenues for 2012, 2011 and 2010.

Marketing and Distribution

We distribute our coverages primarily through branch offices throughout the country that market to wholesale and retail brokers and through independent agents. We also market through agencies and more recently through e-commerce channels.

Brokers

The largest volume of broker-generated premium is in our commercial property, general liability, commercial surety, commercial umbrella, commercial automobile and specialty facultative and treaty reinsurance coverages. This business is produced through independent wholesale, retail and reinsurance brokers.

Independent Agents

Our surety segment offers its business through a variety of independent agents. Additionally, we write program business, such as at-home business and personal umbrella, through independent agents. Homeowners and dwelling fire is produced through independent agents in Hawaii. Each of these programs involves detailed eligibility criteria, which are incorporated into strict underwriting guidelines and prequalification of each risk using a system accessible by the independent agent. The independent agent cannot bind the risk unless they receive approval from our underwriters or through our automated system.

Underwriting Agents

We contract with certain underwriting agencies who have limited authority to bind or underwrite business on our behalf.  The underwriting agreements involve strict underwriting guidelines and the agents are subject to audits upon request. These agencies may receive some compensation through contingent profit commission.

E-commerce and/or Direct

We are actively employing e-commerce to produce and efficiently process and service business, including, at-home businesses, small commercial and personal umbrella risks and surety bonding. On a direct basis we also assume premium on our crop reinsurance treaties.

Competition

Our specialty property and casualty insurance subsidiaries are part of an extremely competitive industry that is cyclical and historically characterized by periods of high premium rates and shortages of underwriting capacity followed by periods of severe competition and excess underwriting capacity. Within the United States alone, approximately 2,700 companies actively market property and casualty coverages. Our primary competitors in our casualty segment are, among others, Ace, Arch, James River, Meadowbrook, Navigators, USLI, Great West, Lancer, Baldwin & Lyons, Chubb, Philadelphia, Great American, Travelers and CNA. Our primary competitors in our property segment are, among others, ACE, Lexington, Arch, Endurance, Crum & Forster, Travelers and Markel. Our primary competitors in our surety segment are, among others, ACE, Arch, HCC, CNA, Safeco,

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North American Specialty, Travelers and Hartford. The combination of coverages, service, pricing and other methods of competition vary from line to line. Our principal methods of meeting this competition are innovative coverages, marketing structure and quality service to the agents and policyholders at a fair price. We compete favorably, in part, because of our sound financial base and reputation, as well as our broad geographic penetration into all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam. In the casualty, property and surety areas, we have acquired experienced underwriting specialists in our branch and home offices. We have continued to maintain our underwriting and marketing standards by not seeking market share at the expense of earnings. We have a track record of withdrawing from markets when conditions become overly adverse and we offer new coverages and new programs where the opportunity exists to provide needed insurance coverage with exceptional service on a profitable basis.

Financial Strength Ratings

A.M. Best ratings for the industry range from ‘‘A++’’ (Superior) to ‘‘F’’ (In liquidation) with some companies not being rated. Standard & Poor’s ratings for the industry range from ‘‘AAA’’ (Extremely strong) to ‘‘R’’ (Regulatory action). Moody’s ratings for the industry range from “Aaa” (Exceptional) to “C” (Lowest). The following table illustrates the range of ratings assigned by each of the three major rating companies that has issued a financial strength rating on our insurance companies:

Publications of A.M. Best, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s indicate that ‘‘A’’ and ‘‘A+’’ ratings are assigned to those companies that, in their opinion, have achieved excellent overall performance when compared to the standards established by these firms and have a strong ability to meet their obligations to policyholders over a long period of time. In evaluating a company’s financial and operating performance, each of the firms review the company’s profitability, leverage and liquidity, as well as the company’s spread of risk, the quality and appropriateness of its reinsurance, the quality and diversification of its assets, the adequacy of its policy and loss reserves, the adequacy of its surplus, its capital structure, its risk management practices and the experience and objectives of its management. These ratings are based on factors relevant to policyholders, agents, insurance brokers and intermediaries and are not directed to the protection of investors.

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At December 31, 2012, the following ratings were assigned to our insurance companies:

* Standard & Poor’s does not rate RLI Indemnity

** CBIC is only rated by A.M. Best

A.M. Best upgraded the financial strength rating for CBIC from A, Excellent in 2011 to A+, Superior in 2012. For each of our other insurance companies, the A.M. Best, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s financial strength ratings represented above are affirmations of previously assigned ratings. A.M. Best, in addition to assigning a financial strength rating, also assigns financial size categories. In June 2012, RLI Ins., Mt. Hawley and RIC, which are collectively rated as a group, were assigned a financial size category of “XI” (adjusted policyholders’ surplus of between $750 million and $1 billion). As of December 31, 2012, the policyholders’ statutory surplus of RLI Insurance Group totaled $684.1 million. This would put the group in A.M. Best’s financial size category “X” (adjusted policyholders’ surplus of between $500 million and $750 million).

Reinsurance

We reinsure a portion of our insurance exposure, paying or ceding to the reinsurer a portion of the premiums received on such policies. Earned premiums ceded to non-affiliated reinsurers totaled $180.2 million, $154.5 million and $153.9 million in 2012, 2011, and 2010, respectively. Insurance is ceded principally to reduce net liability on individual risks and to protect against catastrophic losses. While reinsurance does not relieve us of our legal liability to our policyholders, we use reinsurance as an alternative to using our own capital to fund losses. Retention levels are adjusted each year to maintain a balance between the growth in surplus and the cost of reinsurance. Although reinsurance does not legally discharge an insurer from its primary liability for the full amount of the policies, it does make the assuming reinsurer liable to the insurer to the extent of the insurance ceded.

Reinsurance is subject to certain risks, specifically market risk (which affects the cost and ability to secure reinsurance contracts) and credit risk (which relates to the ability to collect from the reinsurer on our claims). We purchase reinsurance from a number of financially strong reinsurers. We evaluate reinsurers’ ability to pay based on their financial results, level of surplus, financial strength ratings and other risk characteristics. A reinsurance committee, comprised of senior management, approves our security guidelines and reinsurer usage. More than 95 percent of our reinsurance recoverables are due from companies with financial strength ratings of “A” or better by A.M. Best and Standard & Poor’s rating services.

The following table sets forth the 10 largest reinsurers in terms of amounts recoverable, net of collateral we are holding from such reinsurers, as of December 31, 2012. These reinsurers all have financial strength ratings of “A” or better by A.M. Best and Standard and Poor’s rating services. Also shown are the amounts of written premium ceded to these reinsurers during the calendar year 2012.

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* All other reinsurance balances recoverable, when considered by individual reinsurer, are less than 2 percent of shareholders’ equity.

We utilize both treaty and facultative reinsurance coverage for our risks. Treaty coverage refers to a reinsurance contract that is applied to a group or class of business where all the risks written meet the criteria for that class. Facultative coverage is applied to individual risks as opposed to a group or class of business. It is used for a variety of reasons, including supplementing the limits provided by the treaty coverage or covering risks or perils excluded from treaty reinsurance.

Much of our reinsurance is purchased on an excess of loss basis. Under an excess of loss arrangement, we retain losses on a risk up to a specified amount and the reinsurers assume any losses above that amount. We may choose to participate in the reinsurance layers purchased by retaining a percentage of the layer. It is common to find conditions in excess of loss covers such as occurrence limits, aggregate limits and reinstatement premium charges. Occurrence limits cap our recovery for multiple losses caused by the same event. Aggregate limits cap our recovery for all losses ceded during the contract term. We may be required to pay additional premium to reinstate or have access to use the reinsurance limits for potential future recoveries during the same contract year. Our property and surety treaties tend to include reinstatement provisions which require us, in certain circumstances, to pay reinstatement premiums after a loss has occurred in order to preserve coverage.

Excluding CAT reinsurance, the following table summarizes the reinsurance treaty coverage currently in effect:

* A limited number of commercial surety accounts are permitted to exceed the $50 million limit. These accounts are subject to additional levels of review and are monitored on a monthly basis.

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At each renewal, we consider any plans to change the underlying insurance coverage we offer, updated loss activity, the level of RLI Insurance Group’s surplus, changes in our risk appetite, and the cost and availability of reinsurance treaties. In the last renewal cycle, we made several strategic changes to the coverage provided. We changed the contract type for commercial umbrella and excess from a quota share to an excess of loss treaty. In addition, we raised the first-dollar retention on general liability business and placed an excess of loss treaty for our new medical malpractice business.

Property Reinsurance — Catastrophe Coverage

Our property CAT reinsurance reduces the financial impact of a CAT event involving multiple claims and policyholders. Reinsurance limits purchased fluctuate due to changes in the number of policies we insure, reinsurance costs, insurance company surplus levels and our risk appetite. In addition, we monitor the expected rate of return for each of our CAT lines of business. At high rates of return, we grow the book of business and may purchase additional reinsurance depending on our capital position. As the rate of return decreases, we shrink the book and may purchase less reinsurance to increase our return. In 2011, we purchased additional reinsurance to support growth in our wind book of business, which was generating a profitable rate of return. We also anticipated a change in one of the third-party CAT modeling systems that resulted in an increase in estimated potential losses. Our reinsurance coverage for the last few years follows:

Catastrophe Coverages

(in millions)

These CAT limits are in addition to the per-occurrence coverage provided by facultative and other treaty coverages. We have participated in the CAT layers purchased by retaining a percentage of each layer throughout this period. Our participation has varied based on price and the amount of risk transferred by each layer.

Our property CAT program continues to be on an excess of loss basis. It attaches after all other reinsurance has been considered. Although covered in one program, limits and attachment points differ for California earthquakes and all other perils. The following charts use information from our CAT modeling software to illustrate our pre-tax net retention resulting from particular events that would generate the gross losses shown in the table:

Catastrophe - California Earthquake

(in millions)

Catastrophe - Other (Earthquake outside of California, Wind, Other)

(in millions)

Projected losses as of the end of each year presented above were estimated utilizing the current treaty structure in place at that time (January of each following year).

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The previous tables were generated using theoretical probabilities of events occurring in areas where our portfolio of currently in-force policies could generate the level of loss shown. Actual results could vary significantly from these tables as the actual nature or severity of a particular event cannot be predicted with any reasonable degree of accuracy. Reinsurance limits are purchased based on the anticipated losses to large events. The largest losses shown above are possible, but unlikely to occur based on the probability of those events occurring. However, there is a remote chance that a larger event could occur. If the actual event losses are larger than anticipated, we could retain additional losses above the limit of our CAT reinsurance.

Our CAT program includes one prepaid reinstatement for two layers of coverage, up to $100 million, for a CAT other than a California earthquake. If a loss does occur above that level, reinstatement must be purchased for the remaining limits recovered. For a California earthquake, there is a prepaid reinstatement for the $50.0 million excess $50.0 million layer (placed at 75 percent, 75 percent and 78 percent for 2013, 2012, and 2011, respectively) and a reinstatement must be purchased for the remaining reinsurance coverage.

We continuously monitor and quantify our exposure to catastrophes, including earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, convective storms, terrorist acts and other aggregating events. In the normal course of business, we manage our concentrations of exposures to catastrophic events, primarily by limiting concentrations of locations insured to acceptable levels and by purchasing reinsurance. Exposure and coverage detail is recorded for each risk location. We quantify and monitor the total policy limit insured in each geographical region. In addition, we use third-party CAT exposure models and an internally developed analysis to assess each risk to ensure we include an appropriate charge for assumed CAT risks. CAT exposure modeling is inherently uncertain due to the model’s reliance on an infrequent observation of actual events and exposure data, increasing the importance of capturing accurate policy coverage data. The model results are used both in the underwriting analysis of individual risks, and at a corporate level for the aggregate book of CAT-exposed business. From both perspectives, we consider the potential loss produced by individual events that represent moderate-to-high loss potential at varying probabilities and magnitudes. In calculating potential losses, we select appropriate assumptions including, but not limited to, loss amplification and loss adjustment expense. We establish risk tolerances at the portfolio level based on market conditions, the level of reinsurance available, changes to the assumptions in the CAT models, rating agency capital constraints, underwriting guidelines and coverages and internal preferences. Our risk tolerances for each type of CAT, and for all perils in aggregate, change over time as these internal and external conditions change. We are required to report to the rating agencies estimated loss to a single event that could include all potential earthquakes and hurricanes contemplated by the CAT modeling software. This reported loss includes the impact of insured losses based on the estimated frequency and severity of potential events, loss adjustment expense, reinstatements paid after the loss, reinsurance recoveries and taxes. Based on the CAT reinsurance treaty purchased on January 1, 2013, there is a 99.6 percent likelihood that the loss will be less than 13 percent of policyholders’ surplus as of December 31, 2012. Our exposure to CAT losses grew moderately in 2011 based on multiple views of risk including policy counts and policy limits insured. Our total view of risk also includes multiple CAT models, one of which changed significantly in 2011. This model update included more extreme events and a higher probability of those events occurring causing us to view risk more conservatively and, in 2012, modestly reduce our CAT exposure. The exposure levels are still well within our tolerances for this risk.

Environmental, Asbestos and Mass Tort Exposures

We are subject to environmental site cleanup, asbestos removal and mass tort claims and exposures through our commercial umbrella, general liability and discontinued assumed casualty reinsurance lines of business. The majority of the exposure is in the excess layers of our commercial umbrella and assumed reinsurance books of business.

The following table represents paid and unpaid environmental, asbestos and mass tort claims data (including incurred but not reported losses) as of December 31, 2012, 2011 and 2010:

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Our environmental, asbestos and mass tort exposure is limited, relative to other insurers, as a result of entering the affected liability lines after the insurance industry had already recognized environmental and asbestos exposure as a problem and adopted appropriate coverage exclusions. The majority of our reserves are associated with products that went into runoff at least two decades ago. Some are for assumed reinsurance, some are for excess liability business and some followed from the acquisition of Underwriters Indemnity Company in 1999.

Calendar year 2012 was fairly benign in the aggregate, with a very small increase in inception-to-date incurred losses on a net basis but a moderate decrease on a gross basis. The most significant change was the settlement of an environmental claim from 2007 in our marine book with gross payments of $9.3 million and net payments of $0.3 million. Case reserves were decreased by nearly the same amounts causing us to significantly decrease the amount of gross and ceded IBNR allocated to environmental losses.

While our environmental exposure is limited, the ultimate liability for this exposure is difficult to assess because of the extensive and complicated litigation involved in the settlement of claims and evolving legislation on issues such as joint and several liability, retroactive liability and standards of cleanup. Additionally, we participate primarily in the excess layers of coverage, where accurate estimates of ultimate loss are more difficult to derive than for primary coverage.

Losses and Settlement Expenses

Overview

Loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserves represent our best estimate of ultimate payments for losses and related settlement expenses from claims that have been reported but not paid, and those losses that have occurred but have not yet been reported to us. Loss reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability, but instead represent our estimates, generally utilizing individual claim estimates, actuarial expertise and estimation techniques at a given accounting date. The loss reserve estimates are expectations of what ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost upon final resolution. These estimates are based on facts and circumstances then known to us, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims frequency and severity, projections of loss costs, expected interpretations of legal theories of liability and many other factors. In establishing reserves, we also take into account estimated recoveries from reinsurance, salvage and subrogation. The reserves are reviewed regularly by a team of actuaries we employ.

The process of estimating loss reserves involves a high degree of judgment and is subject to a number of variables. These variables can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, claim personnel, economic inflation, legal trends and legislative changes, among others. The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for loss and LAE is difficult to estimate. Loss reserve estimations also differ significantly by coverage due to differences in claim complexity, the volume of claims, the policy limits written, the terms and conditions of the underlying policies, the potential severity of individual claims, the determination of occurrence date for a claim and reporting lags (the time between the occurrence of the policyholder event and when it is actually reported to the insurer). Informed judgment is applied throughout the process. We continually refine our loss reserve estimates as historical loss experience develops and additional claims are reported and settled. We rigorously attempt to consider all significant facts and circumstances known at the time loss reserves are established.

Due to inherent uncertainty underlying loss reserve estimates, including, but not limited to, the future settlement environment, final resolution of the estimated liability may be different from that anticipated at the reporting date. Therefore, actual paid losses in the future may yield a significantly different amount than currently reserved — favorable or unfavorable.

The amount by which estimated losses differ from those originally reported for a period is known as “development.” Development is unfavorable when the losses ultimately settle for more than the levels at which they were reserved or subsequent estimates indicate a basis for reserve increases on unresolved claims. Development is favorable when losses ultimately settle for less than the amount reserved or subsequent estimates indicate a basis for reducing loss reserves on unresolved claims. We reflect favorable or unfavorable developments of loss reserves in the results of operations in the period the estimates are changed.

We record two categories of loss and LAE reserves — case-specific reserves and IBNR reserves.

Within a reasonable period of time after a claim is reported, our claim department completes an initial investigation and establishes a case reserve. This case-specific reserve is an estimate of the ultimate amount we will have to pay for the claim, including related legal expenses and other costs associated with resolving and settling it. The estimate reflects all of the current information available regarding the claim, the informed judgment of our professional claim personnel regarding the nature and value of the specific type of claim and our reserving practices. During the life cycle of a particular claim, as more information

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becomes available, we may revise the estimate of the ultimate value of the claim either upward or downward. We may determine that it is appropriate to pay portions of the reserve to the claimant or related settlement expenses before final resolution of the claim. The amount of the individual claim reserve will be adjusted accordingly and is based on the most recent information available.

We establish IBNR reserves to estimate the amount we will have to pay for claims that have occurred, but have not yet been reported to us, claims that have been reported to us that may ultimately be paid out differently than reflected in our case-specific reserves and claims that have been closed but may reopen and require future payment.

Our IBNR reserving process involves three steps: (1) an initial IBNR generation process that is prospective in nature, (2) a loss and LAE reserve estimation process that occurs retrospectively and (3) a subsequent discussion and reconciliation between our prospective and retrospective IBNR estimates, which includes changes in our provisions for IBNR where deemed appropriate. These three processes are discussed in more detail in the following sections.

LAE represents the cost involved in adjusting and administering losses from policies we issued. The LAE reserves are frequently separated into two components: allocated and unallocated. Allocated loss adjustment expense (ALAE) reserves represent an estimate of claims settlement expenses that can be identified with a specific claim or case. Examples of ALAE would be the hiring of an outside adjuster to investigate a claim or an outside attorney to defend our insured. The claims professional typically estimates this cost separately from the loss component in the case reserve. Unallocated loss adjustment expense (ULAE) reserves represent an estimate of claims settlement expenses that cannot be identified with a specific claim. An example of ULAE would be the cost of an internal claims examiner to manage or investigate a reported claim.

All decisions regarding our best estimate of ultimate loss and LAE reserves are made by our Loss Reserve Committee (LRC). The LRC is made up of various members of the management team including the chief executive officer, chief operating officer, chief financial officer, chief actuary, general counsel and other selected executives. We do not use discounting (recognition of the time value of money) in reporting our estimated reserves for losses and settlement expenses. Based on current assumptions used in calculating reserves, we believe that our overall reserve levels at December 31, 2012, make a reasonable provision to meet our future obligations.

Net loss and loss adjustment reserves by product line at year-end 2012 and 2011 were as follows:

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Initial IBNR Generation Process

Initial carried IBNR reserves are determined through a reserve generation process. The intent of this process is to establish an initial total reserve that will provide a reasonable provision for the ultimate value of all unpaid loss and ALAE liabilities. For most casualty and surety products, this process involves the use of an initial loss and ALAE ratio that is applied to the earned premium for a given period. The result is our best initial estimate of the expected amount of ultimate loss and ALAE for the period by product. Payments and case reserves are subtracted from this initial estimate of ultimate loss and ALAE to determine a carried IBNR reserve.

For most property products, we use an alternative method of determining an appropriate provision for initial IBNR. Since this segment is characterized by a shorter period of time between claim occurrence and claim settlement, the IBNR reserves are determined by IBNR percentages applied to premium earned. The percentages are determined based on historical reporting patterns and are updated periodically. In addition, for assumed property reinsurance, consideration is given to data compiled for a sizable sample of reinsurers. No deductions for paid or case reserves are made. This alternative method of determining initial IBNR allows incurred losses and ALAE to react more rapidly to the actual emergence and is more appropriate for our property products where final claim resolution occurs over a shorter period of time.

Our crop reinsurance business is unique and is subject to an inherently higher degree of estimation risk during interim periods. As a result, the interim reports and professional judgments of our ceding company’s actuaries and crop business experts provide important information which assists us in estimating our carried reserves.

We do not reserve for natural or man-made catastrophes until an event has occurred. Shortly after such occurrence, we review insured locations exposed to the event, catastrophe model loss estimates based on our own exposures and industry loss estimates of the event. We also consider our knowledge of frequency and severity from early claim reports to determine an appropriate reserve for the catastrophe. These reserves are reviewed frequently to consider actual losses reported and appropriate changes to our estimates are made to reflect the new information.

The initial loss and ALAE ratios that are applied to earned premium are reviewed at least semi-annually. Prospective estimates are made based on historical loss experience adjusted for exposure mix, price change and loss cost trends. The initial loss and ALAE ratios also reflect our judgment as to estimation risk. We consider estimation risk by product and coverage within product, if applicable. A product with greater overall volatility and uncertainty has greater estimation risk. Products or coverages with higher estimation risk include, but are not limited to, the following characteristics:

·                          Significant changes in underlying policy terms and conditions,

·                          A new business or one experiencing significant growth and/or high turnover,

·                          Small volume or lacking internal data requiring significant utilization of external data,

·                          Unique reinsurance features including those with aggregate stop-loss, reinstatement clauses, commutation provisions, or clash protection,

·                          Longer emergence patterns with exposures to latent unforeseen mass tort,

·                          Assumed reinsurance businesses where there is an extended reporting lag and/or a heavier utilization of ceding company data and claims and product expertise,

·                          High severity and/or low frequency,

·                          Operational processes undergoing significant change and/or

·                          High sensitivity to significant swings in loss trends, economic change or judicial change.

Following is a table of significant risk factors involved in estimating losses grouped by major product line. We distinguish between loss ratio risk and reserve estimation risk.  Loss ratio risk refers to the possible dispersion of loss ratios from year to year due to inherent volatility in the business such as high severity or aggregating exposures. Reserve estimation risk recognizes the difficulty in estimating a given year’s ultimate loss liability. As an example, our property CAT business (included below in “Other Property”) has significant variance in year-over-year results; however its reserving estimation risk is relatively moderate.

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Significant Risk Factors

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The historical and prospective loss and ALAE estimates along with the risks listed are the basis for determining our initial and subsequent carried reserves. Adjustments in the initial loss ratio by product and segment are made where necessary and reflect updated assumptions regarding loss experience, loss trends, price changes and prevailing risk factors. The LRC makes all final decisions regarding changes in the initial loss and ALAE ratios.

Loss and LAE Reserve Estimation Process

A full analysis of our loss reserves takes place at least semi-annually. The purpose of this analysis is to provide validation of our carried loss reserves. Estimates of the expected value of the unpaid loss and LAE are derived using actuarial methodologies. These estimates are then compared to the carried loss reserves to determine the appropriateness of the current reserve balance.

The process of estimating ultimate payment for claims and claim expenses begins with the collection and analysis of current and historical claim data. Data on individual reported claims, including paid amounts and individual claim adjuster estimates, are grouped by common characteristics. There is judgment involved in this grouping. Considerations when grouping data include the volume of the data available, the credibility of the data available, the homogeneity of the risks in each cohort and both settlement and payment pattern consistency. We use this data to determine historical claim reporting and payment patterns, which are used in the analysis of ultimate claim liabilities. For portions of the business without sufficiently large numbers of policies or that have not accumulated sufficient historical statistics, our own data is supplemented with external or industry average data as available and when appropriate. For our newer products such as crop reinsurance, as well as for executive products, professional services and marine, we utilize external data extensively.

In addition to the review of historical claim reporting and payment patterns, we also incorporate estimated losses relative to premium (loss ratios) by year into the analysis. The expected loss ratios are based on a review of historical loss performance, trends in frequency and severity and price level changes. The estimates are subject to judgment including consideration given to available internal and industry data, growth and policy turnover, changes in policy limits, changes in underlying policy provisions, changes in legal and regulatory interpretations of policy provisions and changes in reinsurance structure. For the most current year, these are equivalent with the ratios used in the initial IBNR generation process. Increased recognition is given to actual emergence as the years age.

We use historical development patterns, expected loss ratios and standard actuarial methods to derive an estimate of the ultimate level of loss and LAE payments necessary to settle all the claims occurring as of the end of the evaluation period.

Our reserve processes include multiple standard actuarial methods for determining estimates of IBNR reserves. Other supplementary methodologies are incorporated as necessary. Mass tort and latent liabilities are examples of exposures for which supplementary methodologies are used. Each method produces an estimate of ultimate loss by accident year. We review all of these various estimates and assign weights to each based on the characteristics of the product being reviewed.

The methodologies we have chosen to incorporate are a function of data availability and are reflective of our own book of business. There are a number of additional actuarial methods that are available but are not currently being utilized because of data constraints or because the methods were either deemed redundant or not predictive for our book of business. From time to time, we evaluate the need to add supplementary methodologies.  New methods are incorporated if it is believed that they improve the estimate of our ultimate loss and LAE liability. To a small extent, this occurred in 2011 as we initiated some supplemental calculations for a sub-segment experiencing apparent changes in case reserve practices. All of the actuarial methods tend to converge to the same estimate as an accident year matures. Our core methodologies are listed below with a short description and their relative strengths and weaknesses:

Paid Loss Development — Historical payment patterns for prior claims are used to estimate future payment patterns for current claims. These patterns are applied to current payments by accident year to yield an expected ultimate loss.

Strengths:  The method reflects only the claim dollars that have been paid and is not subject to case-basis reserve changes or changes in case reserve practices.

Weaknesses:  External claims environment changes can impact the rate at which claims are settled and losses paid (e.g., increase in attorney involvement or legal precedent). Adjustments to reflect changes in payment patterns on a prospective basis are difficult to quantify. For losses that have occurred recently, payments can be minimal and thus early estimates are subject to significant instability.

Incurred Loss Development — Historical case-incurred patterns (paid losses plus case reserves) for past claims are used to estimate future case-incurred amounts for current claims. These patterns are applied to current case-incurred losses by accident year to yield an expected ultimate loss.

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Strengths:  Losses are reported more quickly than paid, therefore, the estimates stabilize sooner. The method reflects more information (claims department case reserve) in the analysis than the paid loss development method.

Weaknesses:  Method involves additional estimation risk if significant changes to case reserving practices have occurred.

Case Reserve Development — Patterns of historical development in reported losses relative to historical case reserves are determined. These patterns are applied to current case reserves by accident year and the result is combined with paid losses to yield an expected ultimate loss.

Strengths:  Like the incurred development method, this method benefits from using the additional information available in case reserves that is not available from paid losses only. It also can provide a more reasonable estimate than other methods when the proportion of claims still open for an accident year is unusually high or low.

Weaknesses:  It is subject to the risk of changes in case reserving practices or philosophy. It may provide unstable estimates when an accident year is immature and more of the IBNR is expected to come from unreported claims rather than development on reported claims and when accident years are very mature with infrequent case reserves.

Expected Loss Ratio — Historical loss ratios, in combination with projections of frequency and severity trends, as well as estimates of price and exposure changes, are analyzed to produce an estimate of the expected loss ratio for each accident year. The expected loss ratio is then applied to the earned premium for each year to estimate the expected ultimate losses. The current accident year expected loss ratio is also the prospective loss and ALAE ratio used in our initial IBNR generation process.

Strengths:  Reflects an estimate independent of how losses are emerging on either a paid or a case reserve basis. Method is particularly useful in the absence of historical development patterns or where losses take a long time to emerge.

Weaknesses:  Ignores how losses are actually emerging and thus produces the same estimate of ultimate loss regardless of favorable/unfavorable emergence.

Paid and Incurred Bornhuetter/Ferguson (BF) — This approach blends the expected loss ratio method with either the paid or incurred loss development method. In effect, the BF methods produce weighted average indications for each accident year. As an example, if the current accident year for commercial automobile liability is estimated to be 20 percent paid, then the paid loss development method would receive a weight of 20 percent and the expected loss ratio method would receive an 80 percent weight. Over time, this method will converge with the ultimate estimated by the respective loss development method.

Strengths:  Reflects actual emergence that is favorable/unfavorable, but assumes remaining emergence will continue as previously expected. Does not overreact to the early emergence (or lack of emergence) where patterns are most unstable.

Weaknesses:  Could potentially understate favorable or unfavorable development by putting weight on the expected loss ratio.

In most cases, multiple estimation methods will be valid for the particular facts and circumstances of the claim liabilities being evaluated. Each estimation method has its own set of assumption variables and its own advantages and disadvantages, with no single estimation method being better than the others in all situations, and no one set of assumption variables being meaningful for all product line components. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the particular estimation methods, when applied to a particular group of claims, can also change over time. Therefore, the weight given to each estimation method will likely change by accident year and with each evaluation.

The actuarial central estimates typically follow a progression that places significant weight on the BF methods when accident years are younger and claims emergence is immature. As accident years mature and claims emerge over time, increasing weight is placed on the incurred development method, the paid development method and the case reserve development method. For product lines with faster loss emergence, the progression to greater weight on the incurred and paid development methods occurs more quickly.

For our long and medium-tail products, the BF methods are typically given the most weight for the first 36 months of evaluation. These methods are also predominant for the first 12 months of evaluation for short-tail lines. Beyond these time periods, our actuaries apply their professional judgment when weighting the estimates from the various methods deployed but place significant reliance on the expected stage of development in normal circumstances.

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Judgment can supersede this natural progression if risk factors and assumptions change, or if a situation occurs that amplifies a particular strength or weakness of a methodology. Extreme projections are critically analyzed and may be adjusted, given less credence or discarded altogether. Internal documentation is maintained that records any substantial changes in methods or assumptions from one loss reserve study to another.

Our estimates of ultimate loss and LAE reserves are subject to change as additional data emerges. This could occur as a result of change in loss development patterns, a revision in expected loss ratios, the emergence of exceptional loss activity, a change in weightings between actuarial methods, the addition of new actuarial methodologies, new information that merits inclusion or the emergence of internal variables or external factors that would alter our view.

There is uncertainty in the estimates of ultimate losses. Significant risk factors to the reserve estimate include, but are not limited to, unforeseen or unquantifiable changes in:

·         Loss payment patterns,

·         Loss reporting patterns,

·         Frequency and severity trends,

·         Underlying policy terms and conditions,

·         Business or exposure mix,

·         Operational or internal processes affecting the timing of loss and LAE transactions,

·         Regulatory and legal environment, and/or

·         Economic environment.

Our actuaries engage in discussions with senior management, underwriting and the claim department on a regular basis to ascertain any substantial changes in operations or other assumptions that are necessary to consider in the reserving analysis.

A considerable degree of judgment in the evaluation of all these factors is involved in the analysis of reserves. The human element in the application of judgment is unavoidable when faced with uncertainty. Different experts will choose different assumptions based on their individual backgrounds, professional experiences and areas of focus. Hence, the estimates selected by various qualified experts may differ significantly from each other. We consider this uncertainty by examining our historic reserve accuracy and through an internal peer review process.

Given the substantial impact of the reserve estimates on our financial statements, we subject the reserving process to significant diagnostic testing and reasonability checks. In addition, there are data validity checks and balances in our front-end processes. Data anomalies are researched and explained to reach a comfort level with the data and results. Leading indicators such as actual versus expected emergence and other diagnostics are also incorporated into the reserving processes.

Determination of Our Best Estimate

Upon completion of our full loss and LAE estimation analysis, the results are discussed with the LRC. As part of this discussion, the analysis supporting the actuarial central estimate of the IBNR reserve by product is reviewed. The actuaries also present explanations supporting any changes to the underlying assumptions used to calculate the indicated central estimate. A review of the resulting variance between the indicated reserves and the carried reserves takes place. Quarterly, we also consider the most recent actual loss emergence compared to the expected loss emergence derived using the last full loss and ALAE analyses. Our actuaries make a recommendation to management in regards to booked reserves that reflect their analytical assessment and view of estimation risk. After discussion of these analyses and all relevant risk factors, the LRC determines whether the reserve balances require adjustment. Resulting reserve balances have always fallen within our actuaries’ reasonable range of estimates.

As a predominantly excess and surplus lines and specialty insurer servicing niche markets, we believe there are several reasons to carry — on an overall basis — reserves above the actuarial central estimate. We believe we are subject to above-average variation in estimates and that this variation is not symmetrical around the actuarial central estimate.

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One reason for the variation is the above-average policyholder turnover and changes in the underlying mix of exposures typical of an excess and surplus lines business. This constant change can cause estimates based on prior experience to be less reliable than estimates for more stable, admitted books of business. Also, as a niche market insurer, there is little industry-level information for direct comparisons of current and prior experience and other reserving parameters. These unknowns create greater-than-average variation in the actuarial central estimates.

Actuarial methods attempt to quantify future outcomes. However, insurance companies are subject to unique exposures that are difficult to foresee at the point coverage is initiated and, often, many years subsequent. Judicial and regulatory bodies involved in interpretation of insurance contracts have increasingly found opportunities to expand coverage beyond that which was intended or contemplated at the time the policy was issued. Many of these policies are issued on an “all risk” and occurrence basis. Aggressive plaintiff attorneys have often sought coverage beyond the insurer’s original intent. Some examples would be the industry’s ongoing asbestos and environmental litigation, court interpretations of exclusionary language for mold and construction defect and debates over wind versus flood as the cause of loss from major hurricane events.

We believe that because of the inherent variation and the likelihood that there are unforeseen and under-quantified liabilities absent from the actuarial estimate, it is prudent to carry loss reserves above the actuarial central estimate. Most of our variance between the carried reserve and the actuarial central estimate is in the most recent accident years for our casualty segment, where the most significant estimation risks reside. These estimation risks are considered when setting the initial loss ratios. In the cases where these risks fail to materialize, favorable loss development will likely occur over subsequent accounting periods. It is also possible that the risks materialize above the amount we considered when booking our initial loss reserves. In this case, unfavorable loss development is likely to occur over subsequent accounting periods.

Our best estimate of loss and LAE reserves may change as a result of a revision in the actuarial central estimate, the actuary’s certainty in the estimates and processes and our overall view of the underlying risks. From time to time, we benchmark our reserving policies and procedures and refine them by adopting industry best practices where appropriate. A detailed, ground-up analysis of the actuarial estimation risks associated with each of our products and segments, including an assessment of industry information, is performed annually. This information is used when determining management’s best estimate of booked reserves.

Loss reserve estimates are subject to a high degree of variability due to the inherent uncertainty of ultimate settlement values. Periodic adjustments to these estimates will likely occur as the actual loss emergence reveals itself over time. Our loss reserving processes reflect accepted actuarial practices and our methodologies result in a reasonable provision for reserves as of December 31, 2012.

Reserve Sensitivities

There are three major parameters that have significant influence on our actuarial estimates of ultimate liabilities by product. They are the actual losses that are reported, the expected loss emergence pattern and the expected loss ratios used in the analyses. If the actual losses reported do not emerge as expected, it may cause us to challenge all or some of our previous assumptions. We may change expected loss emergence patterns, the expected loss ratios used in our analysis and/or the weights we place on a given actuarial method. The impact will be much greater and more leveraged for products with longer emergence patterns. Our general liability product is an example of a product with a relatively long emergence pattern. We have constructed a chart below that illustrates the sensitivity of our general liability reserve estimates to these key parameters. We believe the scenarios to be reasonable as similar favorable variations have occurred in recent years. For example, while our general liability emergence has ranged from 4% favorable to 13% unfavorable over the last three years, our emergence for all products combined, excluding general liability, has ranged from 11% to 32% favorable. The numbers below are the changes in estimated ultimate loss and ALAE in millions of dollars as of December 31, 2012, resulting from the change in the parameters shown. These parameters were applied to a general liability net reserve balance of $324.9 million at December 31, 2012.

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There are often significant inter-relationships between our reserving assumptions that have offsetting or compounding effects on the reserve estimate. Thus, in almost all cases, it is impossible to discretely measure the effect of a single assumption or construct a meaningful sensitivity expectation that holds true in all cases. The scenario above is representative of general liability, one of our largest and longest-tailed products. It is unlikely that all of our products would have variations as wide as illustrated in the example. It is also unlikely that all of our products would simultaneously experience favorable or unfavorable loss development in the same direction or at their extremes during a calendar year. Because our portfolio is made up of a diversified mix of products, there would ordinarily be some offsetting favorable and unfavorable emergence by product as actual losses start to emerge and our loss estimates become more reliable.

It is difficult for us to predict whether the favorable loss development observed in 2006 through 2012 will continue for any of our products in the future. We have reviewed historical data detailing the development of our total balance sheet reserves and changes in accident year loss ratios relative to original estimates. Based on this analysis and our understanding of loss reserve uncertainty, we believe fluctuations will occur in our estimate of ultimate reserve liabilities over time. Over the next calendar year, given our current exposure level and product mix, it would be reasonably likely for us to observe loss reserve development relating to prior years’ estimates across all of our products ranging from approximately 10 percent ($80 million) favorable to 3 percent ($24 million) unfavorable.

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Historical Loss and LAE Development

The following table is a reconciliation of our unpaid losses and settlement expenses (LAE) for the years 2012, 2011 and 2010.