U.S. natural gas prices have staged a dramatic return to form, surging past the $6 threshold for the first time since late 2022.
This explosive rally, which has seen the February 2026 contract (NGG26) gain nearly 70% year-to-date, is a stark reversal from the milder trends seen earlier in the winter.
A lethal combination of record-breaking Arctic temperatures and a sudden squeeze on domestic production has re-ignited volatility, sending the blue fuel to its highest levels in over three years.
What To Expect From Natural Gas Prices Moving Forward
The key catalyst that’s driving this vertical move in natural gas is winter storm Fern — a massive weather system that has gripped 37 states with wind chills as low as -50°F.
From a technical perspective, natural gas futures have cleared a major “congestion zone” between $5.65 and $5.90, decisively breaking above the 2.618 Fibonacci extension at $6.06. This suggests trend acceleration, not just a temporary spike.
Moreover, natural gas has seen its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) push above its 200-day EMA recently, forming a bullish golden cross.
Traders are, therefore, watching the next strong resistance at $6.50 now, with a more aggressive technical target sitting at $7.23.
What Else Supports Higher Natural Gas Prices in 2026?
Beyond the immediate mercury drop, several structural factors are keeping prices elevated.
Winter storm Fern has triggered widespread “freeze-offs”, effectively knocking nearly 10% of U.S. gas production offline as equipment at the wellhead succumbs to the cold.
The U.S. Department of Energy has already issued emergency orders for both Texas and New England to stabilize the grid, as power outages affect over 800,000 customers.
Furthermore, while domestic heating demand is peaking, the U.S. continues to serve as a critical supplier for global markets; any sustained disruption to LNG export terminals could tighten global balances further.
With European storage levels falling below 46%, the international pull for American gas provides a high floor for prices through the remainder of the winter.
All in all, as long as the “global reconnection” continues, the days of $2 gas may remain a distant memory in 2026.
On the date of publication, Wajeeh Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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