Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is a leading California-based fast-casual restaurant company that develops and operates a global chain of Mexican-inspired eateries specializing in customizable burritos, bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and salads prepared from fresh ingredients. With a market cap of $48.9 billion, Chipotle’s operations span the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Dubai, and the U.K.
The restaurant giant has massively underperformed the broader market over the past year. CMG stock prices have plummeted 29.2% over the past 52 weeks, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 13% gains. In 2026, the stock has surged 1.5%, surpassing SPX’s marginal rise.
Narrowing the focus, CMG has also trailed the sector-focused State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLY) 4.7% uptick over the past year but has outpaced its 1.6% dip year-to-date.
On Feb. 3, CMG shares climbed 1.7% after the company released its FY2025 Q4 earnings. Revenue rose 4.9% year over year to $3 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.25 remained flat, edging past expectations. However, comparable sales declined 2.5% as lower customer traffic offset higher menu pricing and average check. Margins were pressured by wage inflation and softer volumes despite some food-cost relief, and the company continued to lean on expansion and capital returns, opening 132 restaurants in the quarter and repurchasing about $742 million of stock.
For the full fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect CMG to deliver an adjusted EPS of $1.14, down 2.6% year over year. On the positive note, the company has a solid earnings surprise history. It has surpassed the Street’s bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters.
Among the 35 analysts covering the CMG stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 22 “Strong Buys,” three “Moderate Buys,” nine “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”
This configuration is optimistic than two months ago, when 22 analysts gave “Strong Buy” recommendations.
On Feb. 4, Citi analyst Jon Tower raised the firm’s price target on Chipotle to $49 from $48 and keeps a “Buy” rating on the shares.
CMG’s mean price target of $44.84 represents a 19.4% premium to current price levels. Meanwhile, the street-high target of $54 suggests a massive 43.8% upside potential.
On the date of publication, Kritika Sarmah did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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