DoorDash (DASH) has spent years building one of the most recognizable consumer brands in the United States. With 56 million monthly active users, DoorDash is among the largest players in the food delivery segment.
Valued at a market capitalization of $74.5 billion, DoorDash reported record subscriber growth in 2025 and continues to fire on all cylinders. But a provocative scenario circulating among macro investors is raising an uncomfortable question: What if all of that is built on a foundation that artificial intelligence (AI) is quietly eroding?
Citrini Research framed it bluntly. In a world where AI optimism continues to hold, DoorDash could end up among the losers. Not because of a bad product, but because of what the technology does to consumer behavior, platform economics, and the gig economy that keeps the whole machine running.
It's a scenario, not a prediction. But it's one investors probably shouldn't ignore.
Agentic AI Could Reshape How People Order Delivery
Citrini Research's thesis centers on what analysts call "habitual intermediation." That's a fancy way of saying that DoorDash's moat is partly built on the fact that when you're hungry, you open the app on your phone without thinking about it.
Machines don't have that habit. The firm's scenario describes a near future where AI agents handle consumer purchasing decisions automatically, shopping across dozens of platforms simultaneously to find the lowest fee and fastest delivery. An agent doesn't care that DoorDash has a nicer interface or that you've been using it for four years. It optimizes for price and speed, every single time.
"The DoorDash moat was literally 'you're hungry, you're lazy, this is the app on your home screen,'" Citrini wrote in its analysis. "An agent doesn't have a home screen."
In this scenario, the barriers that have kept competitors out collapse quickly. Better coding tools make it easier for new delivery apps to launch, gig workers spread across dozens of platforms to chase the best pay, margins compress toward zero, and the incumbents fight each other while new entrants take a share.
It's a concerning picture, and it gets worse when you layer in the broader economic scenario that Citrini describes — one where AI-driven white-collar layoffs gut the spending power of DoorDash's core customer base.
What Does DoorDash's CEO Say About the AI Threat?
To his credit, DoorDash CEO Tony Xu isn't ignoring the question. On the company's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call, Xu addressed the agentic commerce debate directly.
His answer was measured and historically grounded. Xu pointed to what happened when Alphabet (GOOGL) launched its own Google food ordering product. Google drove massive traffic to restaurants through Maps and Search. But the retention rates were a fraction of what DoorDash delivered.
Why? Because ordering food isn't just a search query. It's a chain of real-world events, given that drivers could run late, items could go missing, and substitutions may be needed. The end-to-end job is messy, and DoorDash has spent over a decade getting good at it.
"So long as we are that best place, we will also attract all of the audience and all of the advertiser dollars that comes from that audience," Xu said.
Xu framed AI agents the way DoorDash once framed Meta Platforms' (META) Facebook and Google — as potential channel partners that drive top-of-funnel traffic, not existential threats. That's a reasonable take. It's also one that assumes DoorDash's operational edge holds even as the technology accelerates.
The company is also betting on autonomous delivery — its DoorDash Dot project and drone programs — to lower costs and expand into suburbs and rural markets where traditional delivery economics are tough. But autonomous vehicles and drones are years from meaningful scale, and the agentic commerce threat is moving faster.
On the financial side, the numbers still look solid. DoorDash reported strong Q4 2025 results, with gross order value (GOV) growth accelerating for the second consecutive year. Monthly active users hit all-time highs. DashPass subscribers hit a record, while new verticals like grocery and retail are on track to reach unit economic profitability in the second half of 2026.
The Final Takeaway
Out of the 42 analysts covering DoorDash, 30 recommend a “Strong Buy” rating, two recommend a “Moderate Buy,” and 10 recommend a “Hold” rating. The average price target for DASH stock is $262.23, implying roughly 46% potential upside from current levels.
When it comes down to it, Citrini's scenario isn't about today. It's about what happens when millions of consumers outsource their purchasing decisions to AI agents that feel no loyalty to any platform. The company that built its empire on being the path of least resistance may soon face a world where the path of least resistance runs straight past it.
DoorDash isn't going away tomorrow. Its operational moat is real, and Xu's arguments about end-to-end execution hold weight. But the Citrini scenario deserves a seat at the table when you're thinking about what DASH stock is worth over the next three to five years.
The canary, as Citrini puts it, is still alive. For now.
On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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