UKG Workforce Activity Report: Shift Work Declines Reinforce Soft Landing in Most Industries, Fewer Jobs Created in July

The UKG Workforce Activity Report for July 2022 shows the total number of shifts worked1 by people at U.S. businesses decreased 0.6%, an early indicator that July jobs growth will fall slightly behind June’s benchmark. The UKG Workforce Recovery Scale additionally highlights a one-point drop, further reinforcing reduced job creation this month. The recovery index rests at 95.5, relative to the same month one year ago — its lowest point in 2022. Workforce activity levels indexed by industry show the retail and service sectors also hit new lows in 2022, as did all regions except the Southeast.

UKG will discuss the findings in a live market briefing on Tuesday, August 2, at 10 a.m. ET (U.S. and Canada). Register to attend.

Dave Gilbertson, vice president, UKG

“UKG’s high-frequency data highlights very slight declines in workforce activity over four of the past five months and suggests we’ll see fewer new jobs created in July’s employment report, compared with June. While there’s no indication yet of broad-based layoffs outside of specific sectors, like finance and technology, we are seeing businesses begin to pull back on new hiring. Although the labor market remains tight, this gradual decline in job creation would indicate that efforts to slow the job market are starting to work. This positions most industries — with the notable exception of healthcare — on a path to achieve a soft landing in the labor market, though the situation remains very dynamic.”

Manufacturing is the only sector to increase shift work in July, in spite of employers’ prolonged struggles to close the skilled-labor gap:

• Manufacturing: 1.3%

• Retail, hospitality, and food service: -0.7%

• Healthcare: -1.4%

• Services and distribution: -1.9%

Following a 2.7% increase in June, shift gains in the Northeast continue to lead:

• Northeast²: 0.5%

• West³: 0.3%

• Midwest⁴: -1.1%

• Southeast⁵: -1.5%

Some businesses chose to keep roles vacant rather than compete to hire in July:

• Fewer than 100 employees: -0.9%

• 101-500: -0.4%

• 501-1,000: -0.8%

• 1,001-2,500: -1.4%

• 2,501-5,000: 4.3%

• More than 5,000: -1.5%

The UKG Workforce Activity Report is a high-frequency index analyzing shift work trends for 4 million people at 35,000 U.S. businesses to understand job creation and economic momentum.