It’s been a complicated few weeks for risky assets, and Bitcoin hasn’t been an exception.
The BTC price has hovered near the $108,000 – $110,000 range, bouncing right above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) but struggling to regain the strong momentum seen between April and July this year.
This temporary hiccup started ahead of this week’s interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Even though the central bank reduced rates as expected, Jerome Powell’s comments reignited discussions about whether the institution will lower rates once again in December, as everyone expected.
Despite the Fed’s softer stance, the broader sentiment in the crypto market remains subdued. Traders seem hesitant to commit any meaningful capital after the catastrophic October 10 crash.
On the other hand, inflation data has cooled but remains “somewhat elevated”. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, one of Bitcoin’s long-standing macro antagonists, has weakened sharply throughout the year, removing a key headwind for crypto that has paved the way for multiple new all-time highs this year for the top crypto.
It’s a curious dynamic: fundamentals are quietly improving, yet enthusiasm feels muted. That gap between improving conditions and investor sentiment might be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next significant move — in whichever direction conviction finally breaks.
Macro Tailwinds Have Done Their Part, But Volatility Persists
From a macro perspective, it has been a challenging year for Bitcoin bulls. On paper, lower rates and a falling dollar should create fertile ground for speculative assets to thrive.
Yet, the performance of equities, particularly in the tech sector, has been inconsistent. After a strong first half, several leading growth names have entered consolidation phases, and risk appetite has cooled.
That shift has spilled over into crypto, which tends to correlate with tech stocks more than many investors like to admit.
Still, there are reasons to think that the current consolidation is temporary rather than structural. The Fed’s latest commentary suggests that policymakers are aware of slowing global growth and softening labor data — both of which argue for continued monetary support.
A third cut in December remains on the table, even if officials won’t confirm it. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to bottom during the later stages of rate-cut cycles, when liquidity expectations start to rise again.
At the same time, capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had slowed during the summer, have shown modest improvement in October. Institutional positioning, while not euphoric, appears stable, with most funds maintaining neutral to mildly bullish exposure.
Technical Picture: A Battle at the 200-Day EMA
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin’s long-term trend, as defined by the 200-day EMA, sits near $108,000, a level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance since late 2024.
This moving average is currently being tested again, with price action showing multiple intraday dips below the line followed by some quick and strong recoveries.
The market seems to be defending this level aggressively, indicating that buyers still see it as a fair value zone for re-accumulation.
Volume patterns reinforce that view. While trading activity has thinned compared to the first few months of the year, higher volumes have accompanied each bounce from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a healthy sign that institutional participants are buying these dips.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 45, hovering just above the neutral threshold. That reading confirms the lack of a strong directional bias: Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold, as sentiment remains cautious.
Should BTC break decisively below the 200-day EMA with high volumes, the next major area of support lies near $100,000, which is also a psychological threshold.
On the upside, a daily close above $115,000 could attract momentum traders and trigger some short-covering, opening the door for a push toward the $120,000–$122,000 zone.
In short, the chart reflects a market that’s searching for persistence despite the latest headwinds. Trend structure remains intact, but buyers are waiting for a macro catalyst, whether from the Fed, the dollar, or risk sentiment, to validate a renewed bullish phase.
Market Sentiment Drives BTC Prices Over Macroeconomic Data?
Beyond charts and data, market psychology is playing a major role in shaping the price of Bitcoin.
The crypto space, once dominated by speculative euphoria, has matured into a more restrained space, especially for the top tokens like BTC.
Many investors burned by volatility in 2022 and 2023 are still hesitant to believe that a sustainable bull market can unfold under a cloudy macro backdrop.
That caution has some sort of “sentiment discount” where the price lags despite improving fundamentals.
Interestingly, this environment mirrors several previous Bitcoin cycles. Extended consolidation periods following rate cuts have often preceded explosive rallies once investors collectively realize that liquidity is expanding faster than expected.
The challenge, as always, lies in timing, catching that inflection point before momentum traders flood in.
If the Fed hints at a December rate cut, or if inflation data surprises on the downside, Bitcoin could benefit from a re-pricing of liquidity expectations. Combine that with a still-weak dollar and improving ETF inflows, and the setup becomes much more compelling heading into year-end.
