The U.S. presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024, but there’s another event that investors may want to vote on before the election. From November 3 through November 6, the Obesity Society will hold its annual meeting, ObesityWeek 2024. Viking Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: VKTX) will be a key presenter.
Viking will provide updates on its lead candidate's progress, VK2735 dual GLP-1/GIP agonist drug. The company’s injectable drug is in a Phase 2 VENTURE study with obese patients who have been evaluated after 13 weeks of treatment. This is an increasingly crowded field, but Viking’s candidate has generated several data points that show similar, if not better, weight loss to candidates from Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) and Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY).
However, what is really causing investors to get excited is the company’s oral version of VK2735. The drug, which is dosed daily for 28 days, is in a Phase 1 multiple ascending dose (MAD) clinical trial.
The Short-Term and Long-Term Case Are the Same
Warren Buffett said that Benjamin Graham coined the phrase, “In the short term, the market is a voting machine ...” The sentiment behind the statement is that all it takes for a stock to go up in the short term is money, not any particular insight or, as Graham said, “emotional stability.”
That reminds me of a marketing mantra. That is, people buy on emotion and then justify with facts. And all too frequently, that’s what happens with stocks.
However, the second part of that statement is, “...but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine.” This means that as time passes and companies prove themselves with increasing revenue, earnings, and perhaps dividends, stocks rise because of value.
Viking Therapeutics isn’t at that stage yet. This is still a pre-revenue, clinical-stage company. Even if the company delivers a strong report, it is currently targeting 2027 for when the injectable form of VK2735 will be commercially available.
Although the company has approximately $1 billion in cash to get its drugs through the trial stage, it will likely need to find a partner to manufacture the drug at scale. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t facts to justify your purchase of VKTX stock.
The Bullish Case for VKTX Stock
Viking Therapeutics has been one of the best-performing medical stocks in the last 12 months, with a gain of over 691%. That may make some investors concerned that VKTX stock is in the mania stage. But there are several reasons to believe there’s still more upside ahead.
- As you’ve seen in the last 18 months, the weight loss market is huge and is growing. Analysts from The Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) predict the market will grow from $40 billion to $130 billion in 2030. That leaves enough room for multiple competitors.
- An oral GLP-1 drug is likely to show strong customer preference.
- Analysts maintain a Buy rating on VKTX stock, with a consensus price target of $108.60. This would be a gain of over 50%.
- 76% of the company’s stock is owned by institutional investors. That will help smooth out volatility for less risk-tolerant investors.
Use the Noise to Your Advantage
Over the past five days, two Viking insiders have sold shares of VKTX stock. This typically results in some selling activity, And sure enough, despite a 33% jump in VKTX stock after the clinical trial results were revealed, the stock has pulled back approximately 9%.
But this isn’t something to be concerned about. All the sales were conducted as part of a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan and disclosed months before the actual sales took place.
And with the stock forming higher lows, this may be about as big of a dip as you’ll get. However, if bearish sentiment picks up, you may want to look at any sell-off as a buying opportunity.
