The Great Gold Divide: Barrick’s High-Stakes Bet on a Copper-Rich Future and a North American Spinoff

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In a move that has sent shockwaves through the global mining sector, Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) has officially set the clock for a radical corporate transformation. As of February 24, 2026, the mining giant is moving full-throttle toward a strategic overhaul that will see its premier North American assets carved out into a standalone public entity by late 2026. This "Great Divide" is designed to isolate the company’s high-performing, lower-risk Nevada and Caribbean operations from its more volatile, albeit high-yield, international portfolio.

The restructuring comes at a time of unprecedented financial strength for the company. Barrick recently reported a record-shattering $1.5 billion in free cash flow for a single quarter, culminating in a total of $3.87 billion for the 2025 fiscal year. Despite this liquidity, the company is grappling with rising All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) in its African heartlands and a rapidly shifting identity. With copper now accounting for roughly 30% of the firm's total profit, Barrick is no longer just a gold company; it is evolving into a dual-commodity titan positioned for the green energy transition.

The Blueprint for NewCo: Unlocking the Nevada Crown Jewels

The formal journey toward this spinoff reached a milestone on February 5, 2026, when Barrick’s board of directors authorized the initial preparations for an IPO of its North American division. Internally referred to as "NewCo," this new entity will serve as a pure-play powerhouse for North American precious metals. It is slated to hold Barrick’s 61.5% controlling interest in Nevada Gold Mines—the world’s largest gold producing complex—as well as the high-grade Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic and the burgeoning Fourmile discovery in Nevada.

The timeline for this transition has been carefully orchestrated over the last 18 months. Following the retirement of veteran CEO Mark Bristow in late 2025, new leadership under Mark Hill has moved aggressively to "unlock embedded value" that the market has historically discounted due to the perceived risks of Barrick’s global footprint. By late 2026, investors will have the choice between a stable, dividend-heavy North American gold producer and a growth-oriented, copper-heavy international miner. Initial market reactions have been cautiously optimistic, with analysts noting that the combined valuation of the two separate entities could significantly exceed Barrick’s current market capitalization.

Winners, Losers, and the Shifting Landscape of Mining Equity

The primary beneficiaries of this overhaul are expected to be Barrick’s long-term shareholders, who will receive shares in the new North American entity. Analysts at major financial institutions suggest that "NewCo" will likely trade at a premium, similar to other pure-play North American miners, effectively shedding the "geopolitical discount" that often plagues companies with significant operations in jurisdictions like Mali or the Democratic Republic of Congo. Furthermore, Newmont (NYSE: NEM), which partners with Barrick in the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, stands to benefit from a more focused and localized operator next door, potentially leading to further operational synergies in the Carlin Trend.

Conversely, the "losers" in this scenario may be the African jurisdictions that currently host Barrick’s highest-cost mines. As Barrick redirects its capital toward massive copper projects like Lumwana in Zambia and Reko Diq in Pakistan, its older gold assets in Africa may face tighter budgets or further divestment. Companies specializing in mid-tier gold production, such as B2Gold (NYSE: BTG) or AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), may find themselves competing for a shrinking pool of "global-tier" institutional capital as investors pivot toward the newly streamlined Barrick or its copper-centric successor.

This strategic overhaul is a symptom of a much larger shift in the mining industry: the convergence of precious metals and industrial "green" metals. Barrick’s transition toward generating 30% of its profit from copper aligns with the global push for electrification. The company’s $2 billion "Super Pit" expansion at the Lumwana mine in Zambia and the financial close of the Reko Diq project in Pakistan are clear signals that the company views copper as its primary growth engine for the next decade.

Historically, gold miners have resisted diversifying into industrial metals, fearing it would dilute their status as a "safe haven" investment. However, Barrick is following a precedent set by diversified giants like Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) and Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), recognizing that the scarcity of high-quality copper deposits makes them as valuable as—if not more valuable than—gold in a decarbonizing economy. This move also addresses the reality of rising AISC, which has climbed toward $1,760–$1,950 per ounce across the industry. By separating the assets, Barrick can manage the cost pressures of its African gold operations without dragging down the valuation of its more efficient North American mines.

The Road to Late 2026: Execution Risks and Market Opportunities

As the late 2026 deadline approaches, Barrick faces several critical hurdles. The most immediate challenge is the successful execution of the NewCo IPO in a market that remains sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and volatile gold prices. Any significant dip in the price of gold could dampen the appetite for a new gold-focused entity. Furthermore, the transition of leadership from the "Bristow era" to the "Hill era" will be under intense scrutiny as the company navigates the complex regulatory requirements of spinning off assets across multiple jurisdictions.

In the short term, investors should watch for the results of the Lumwana expansion and the progress of the Reko Diq mobilization. These projects are the foundation of the "Remaining Barrick" and will determine whether the company can successfully market itself as a premier copper producer. If successful, the spinoff will create a blueprint for other diversified miners to follow, potentially leading to a wave of consolidation and restructuring across the sector as companies seek to simplify their portfolios and maximize shareholder returns.

Final Assessment: A Defining Moment for the Mining Industry

Barrick Gold’s strategic overhaul is more than just a corporate restructuring; it is a bold statement on the future of resource extraction. By isolating its North American gold assets and leaning heavily into copper, Barrick is attempting to capture the best of both worlds: the stability and prestige of the Nevada mines and the high-growth potential of the global energy transition. The record $1.5 billion free cash flow provides the "war chest" necessary to execute this plan, but the true test will be in the market's valuation of the two separate entities.

Moving forward, the mining industry will be watching closely to see if this move actually "unlocks" the value Barrick's management has long claimed is hidden. For investors, the coming months will be a period of discovery. The key indicators to watch will be the final AISC figures for the 2026 fiscal year and the formal filing of the NewCo prospectus. If Barrick can maintain its 30% copper profit margin while successfully launching NewCo, it may very well set a new standard for how the world’s largest resource companies are built and managed in the 21st century.


This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

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