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By Anthony Termini, Benzinga
Former President Barack Obama is quoted as saying that elections have consequences. Perhaps this is why voters can often be consumed with confusion and anxiety leading up to them. Today’s political climate appears more divisive than most can remember, and the two candidates couldn’t be more different, both from a personality and policy perspective. Each one’s stated policies come with potential risks and rewards.
Comparing The Candidates’ Corporate Tax Policies
The Republican candidate Donald Trump vows to reduce the rate big companies pay in income taxes. He says he will lower the corporate tax rate from its current 21% to 15%. His Democratic opponent Kamala Harris pledges to raise it to 28%.
The potential increase in corporate profits created by a lower tax bill might well benefit shareholders of public companies. But are they likely to increase the federal budget deficit?
On the flip side, would an increase in those same tax rates so badly decrease corporate earnings that the stock market swoons? Or will GDP rise and will we witness a reduction in the deficit?
The reality is that nobody can truly know with absolute certainty. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), both candidates’ policy proposals will increase the federal budget deficit. More problematic is that the PWBM “analyses only include proposals that are detailed enough to score.” In other words, they really don’t have enough to go on to arrive at a solid conclusion.
How Geopolitics And Economics Collide – Where Does Each Candidate Stand?
Russia’s war on Ukraine “could upend fiscal and monetary policy in advanced economies,” according to the International Monetary Fund. The two candidates for president have very different views on how to deal with the conflict.
Donald Trump says that the United States should “get out” of the mix and leave any resolution up to the two combatants. Vice President Harris has vowed “unwavering support” for the embattled country.
Many investors find it problematic to determine whether the next President of the United States will usher in a new world order or maintain the status quo. The Council on Foreign Relations offers a stark contrast between the two.
For example, Trump says that the United States should reassess its role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Vice President is a strong supporter of multilateral cooperation like NATO.
Conflicts in places like Gaza and Congo and instability in places like Venezuela – where the U.S. has sanctioned judicial and election officials – add further chaos to the mix. All of this begs the question: How could these regional skirmishes change the climate for investment?
Will The United States Lead, Follow Or Stay Out Of The Way?
Potentially more troubling for American investors is the broader role the United States takes in global affairs beyond possible conflict resolution. Will an America First philosophy bolster the country’s standing as a leader among other nations and help it promote mutually beneficial synergies? Or will it stifle cooperation?
The two candidates do not have the same approach to reinvigorating American engagement in the world. The consequences of trade and foreign policy are far-reaching, hugely complicated and as the World Trade Organization notes, “have always been intertwined.”
Where Can Investors Turn For Insights?
A recent article in Forbes magazine predicted that "over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world" by 2030 and that the job losses related to that and AI will lead to "civil unrest and protests."
Investors looking to make sense of the chaos of a rapidly changing world might consider attending the Crossroads Summit 2024.
The event offers traders an opportunity to network with geopolitical experts and thought leaders across different disciplines to help leaders refine investing strategies focused on the future. The Summit will feature several keynote speakers including bestselling authors Peter Zeihan and Neil Howe, City of Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, Vice President of Mastercard (NYSE: MA) Eduardo R. Abreu and more.
The Crossroads Summit seeks to connect leaders and investors with some of the most respected visionaries in their fields. These analysts have a deep and multi-disciplinary understanding of the complex issues facing the world today.
They are focused on identifying opportunities in potential innovations that may emerge from global chaos. The conference provides attendees with an opportunity to discuss their concerns about the future with experts whose business it is to profit from it. The Crossroads Summit believes that the sharpest traders and investors are always looking beyond the headlines and soundbites.
Featured photo by Phil Hearing on Unsplash.
Benzinga is a leading financial media and data provider, known for delivering accurate, timely, and actionable financial information to empower investors and traders.
This post contains sponsored content. This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
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