Breakfast restaurant chain First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ: FWRG) will be reporting earnings this Tuesday morning. Here’s what to look for.
First Watch met analysts’ revenue expectations last quarter, reporting revenues of $307.9 million, up 19.1% year on year. It was a strong quarter for the company, with full-year EBITDA guidance exceeding analysts’ expectations and an impressive beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates.
Is First Watch a buy or sell going into earnings? Read our full analysis here, it’s free for active Edge members.
This quarter, analysts are expecting First Watch’s revenue to grow 23.2% year on year to $310.1 million, improving from the 14.8% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $0.07 per share.
Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business to stay the course heading into earnings. First Watch has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates four times over the last two years.
Looking at First Watch’s peers in the sit-down dining segment, some have already reported their Q3 results, giving us a hint as to what we can expect. Brinker International delivered year-on-year revenue growth of 18.5%, beating analysts’ expectations by 1.3%, and BJ's reported revenues up 1.4%, falling short of estimates by 1.1%. Brinker International traded down 12.9% following the results while BJ's was up 18%.
Read our full analysis of Brinker International’s results here and BJ’s results here.
The outlook for 2025 remains clouded by potential trade policy changes and corporate tax discussions, which could impact business confidence and growth. While some of the sit-down dining stocks have shown solid performance in this choppy environment, the group has generally underperformed, with share prices down 6.1% on average over the last month. First Watch is up 4.1% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $22.27 (compared to the current share price of $16.49).
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