Grand Canyon Education’s fourth quarter results met Wall Street’s revenue and profit expectations, but the market responded negatively, with shares trading down after the announcement. Management attributed the quarter’s performance to robust online enrollment growth, continued strength in hybrid campus offerings, and targeted investments in marketing and recruitment. CEO Brian Mueller noted, “New starts were up in the mid-single digits in the fourth quarter,” and highlighted the company’s ability to adapt to evolving workforce needs and education models as key to sustained growth.
Is now the time to buy LOPE? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $308.1 million vs analyst estimates of $308.1 million (5.3% year-on-year growth, in line)
- EPS (GAAP): $3.14 vs analyst expectations of $3.13 (in line)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $123.3 million vs analyst estimates of $123.8 million (40% margin, in line)
- Revenue Guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $333.8 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $309.3 million
- EPS (GAAP) guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $9.86 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 2%
- Operating Margin: 35.1%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Students: 131,826, up 8,677 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $4.20 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Grand Canyon Education’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Alexander Paris (Barrington Research) asked about the impact of government shutdowns on military tuition assistance, with CFO Daniel Bachus confirming the effect was about $2.5–$3 million, slightly below initial estimates.
- Paris (Barrington Research) inquired about the increased marketing spend for ground campus recruitment. CEO Brian Mueller detailed a shift from high school counselors to digital media, noting improved application and registration rates as a result.
- Paris (Barrington Research) sought updates on corporate partnerships’ role in enrollments. Mueller stated that roughly one-third of new online enrollments now come from employer relationships, with expectations for continued growth in this channel.
- Paris (Barrington Research) questioned the outlook for high school counselor staffing. Mueller said counselor count is down about 10% year-over-year as resources shift to more effective marketing strategies.
- Jeffrey Silber (BMO Capital Markets) queried the impact of federal loan caps and accountability regulations. Bachus responded that tuition remains below caps and expects little to no financial impact, aside from minor living expense adjustments at the graduate level.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking forward, the StockStory team will be tracking (1) the pace of enrollment growth in both online and hybrid programs as new offerings launch, (2) the effectiveness of digital marketing initiatives and their effect on student recruitment costs, and (3) the company’s ability to expand site-level profitability and manage regulatory changes. Developments in AI-driven student support and new corporate partnerships will also be important markers for sustained performance.
Grand Canyon Education currently trades at $156.98, down from $167.79 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
Our Favorite Stocks Right Now
The market’s up big this year - but there’s a catch. Just 4 stocks account for half the S&P 500’s entire gain. That kind of concentration makes investors nervous, and for good reason. While everyone piles into the same crowded names, smart investors are hunting quality where no one’s looking - and paying a fraction of the price. Check out the high-quality names we’ve flagged in our Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).
Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
