Restaurant company Bloomin’ Brands (NASDAQ: BLMN) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales flat year on year at $975.2 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.25 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $975.2 million vs analyst estimates of $981.8 million (flat year on year, 0.7% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.25 vs analyst estimates of $0.24 (in line)
- Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $0.83 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 4.2%
- Operating Margin: -1.4%, down from 1.7% in the same quarter last year
- Locations: 1,460 at quarter end, down from 1,463 in the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales were flat year on year (-1.1% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $500.2 million
Company Overview
Owner of the iconic Australian-themed Outback Steakhouse, Bloomin’ Brands (NASDAQ: BLMN) is a leading American restaurant company that owns and operates a portfolio of popular restaurant brands.
Revenue Growth
Reviewing a company’s long-term sales performance reveals insights into its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but the best consistently grow over the long haul.
With $3.96 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, Bloomin' Brands is one of the larger restaurant chains in the industry and benefits from a well-known brand that influences consumer purchasing decisions. However, its scale is a double-edged sword because it’s harder to find incremental growth when your existing restaurant banners have penetrated most of the market. To accelerate system-wide sales, Bloomin' Brands likely needs to optimize its pricing or lean into new chains and international expansion.
As you can see below, Bloomin' Brands struggled to increase demand as its $3.96 billion of sales for the trailing 12 months was close to its revenue six years ago. This was mainly because it didn’t open many new restaurants.
This quarter, Bloomin' Brands’s $975.2 million of revenue was flat year on year, falling short of Wall Street’s estimates.
Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to remain flat over the next 12 months. Although this projection implies its newer menu offerings will fuel better top-line performance, it is still below average for the sector.
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Restaurant Performance
Number of Restaurants
A restaurant chain’s total number of dining locations often determines how much revenue it can generate.
Bloomin' Brands listed 1,460 locations in the latest quarter and has kept its restaurant count flat over the last two years while other restaurant businesses have opted for growth.
When a chain doesn’t open many new restaurants, it usually means there’s stable demand for its meals and it’s focused on improving operational efficiency to increase profitability.
Same-Store Sales
A company's restaurant base only paints one part of the picture. When demand is high, it makes sense to open more. But when demand is low, it’s prudent to close some locations and use the money in other ways. Same-store sales is an industry measure of whether revenue is growing at those existing restaurants and is driven by customer visits (often called traffic) and the average spending per customer (ticket).
Bloomin' Brands’s demand within its existing dining locations has barely increased over the last two years as its same-store sales were flat. This performance isn’t ideal, and we’d be skeptical if Bloomin' Brands starts opening new restaurants to artificially boost revenue growth.
In the latest quarter, Bloomin' Brands’s year on year same-store sales were flat. This performance was more or less in line with its historical levels.
Key Takeaways from Bloomin' Brands’s Q4 Results
We were impressed by Bloomin' Brands’s optimistic EPS guidance for next quarter, which blew past analysts’ expectations. On the other hand, its EBITDA missed and its full-year EPS guidance fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this was a softer quarter. The stock traded up 4.3% to $6.12 immediately following the results.
Should you buy the stock or not? When making that decision, it’s important to consider its valuation, business qualities, as well as what has happened in the latest quarter. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).
