Insurance holding company American Financial Group (NYSE: AFG) reported Q4 CY2025 results topping the market’s revenue expectations, with sales up 1.8% year on year to $2.06 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $3.65 per share was 10.1% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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American Financial Group (AFG) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Net Premiums Earned: $1.81 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.83 billion (2.4% year-on-year decline, 1.3% miss)
- Revenue: $2.06 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.02 billion (1.8% year-on-year growth, 2.2% beat)
- Pre-tax Profit: $379 million (18.4% margin)
- Adjusted EPS: $3.65 vs analyst estimates of $3.32 (10.1% beat)
- Book Value per Share: $57.78 vs analyst estimates of $57.44 (8.6% year-on-year growth, 0.6% beat)
- Market Capitalization: $10.85 billion
Company Overview
With roots dating back to 1872 and a business model that empowers local decision-making, American Financial Group (NYSE: AFG) is an insurance holding company that specializes in commercial property and casualty insurance products for businesses through its Great American Insurance Group.
Revenue Growth
Big picture, insurers generate revenue from three key sources. The first is the core business of underwriting policies. The second source is income from investing the “float” (premiums collected upfront not yet paid out as claims) in assets such as fixed-income assets and equities. The third is fees from various sources such as policy administration, annuities, or other value-added services. Luckily, American Financial Group’s revenue grew at a decent 8.2% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years. Its growth was slightly above the average insurance company and shows its offerings resonate with customers.
Long-term growth is the most important, but within financials, a half-decade historical view may miss recent interest rate changes and market returns. American Financial Group’s recent performance shows its demand has slowed as its annualized revenue growth of 4.1% over the last two years was below its five-year trend. 
Note: Quarters not shown were determined to be outliers, impacted by outsized investment gains/losses that are not indicative of the recurring fundamentals of the business.
This quarter, American Financial Group reported modest year-on-year revenue growth of 1.8% but beat Wall Street’s estimates by 2.2%.
Net premiums earned made up 90.3% of the company’s total revenue during the last five years, meaning American Financial Group lives and dies by its underwriting activities because non-insurance operations barely move the needle.
Markets consistently prioritize net premiums earned growth over investment and fee income, recognizing its superior quality as a core indicator of the company’s underwriting success and market penetration.
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Book Value Per Share (BVPS)
Insurance companies are balance sheet businesses, collecting premiums upfront and paying out claims over time. The float–premiums collected but not yet paid out–are invested, creating an asset base supported by a liability structure. Book value per share (BVPS) captures this dynamic by measuring these assets (investment portfolio, cash, reinsurance recoverables) less liabilities (claim reserves, debt, future policy benefits). BVPS is essentially the residual value for shareholders.
We therefore consider BVPS very important to track for insurers and a metric that sheds light on business quality. While other (and more commonly known) per-share metrics like EPS can sometimes be lumpy due to reserve releases or one-time items and can be managed or skewed while still following accounting rules, BVPS reflects long-term capital growth and is harder to manipulate.
American Financial Group’s BVPS declined at a 6% annual clip over the last five years. However, BVPS growth has accelerated recently, growing by 6.5% annually over the last two years from $50.91 to $57.78 per share.
Over the next 12 months, Consensus estimates call for American Financial Group’s BVPS to grow by 9.3% to $57.44, mediocre growth rate.
Key Takeaways from American Financial Group’s Q4 Results
We enjoyed seeing American Financial Group beat analysts’ revenue expectations this quarter. We were also glad its EPS outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. On the other hand, its net premiums earned slightly missed. Overall, this print had some key positives. The market seemed to be hoping for more, and the stock traded down 1.9% to $127.80 immediately after reporting.
Is American Financial Group an attractive investment opportunity right now? When making that decision, it’s important to consider its valuation, business qualities, as well as what has happened in the latest quarter. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).
