DHUnplugged #305: From Unicorn to UniCorpse

It has been a busy couple of weeks while DHunplugged was on a short vacation. Markets rally, oil climbs and central banks are getting more aggressive. China is still in terrible shape, but investors are still looking for more stimulative actions to come to the rescue. It will be a big week upcoming with a busy economic calendar and the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday… And.. What is with the Unicorns? Write-downs happening quickly as there is a sense that valuations are way to rich for many of these names. Click HERE for Show Notes and Links Trip to Panama – had some interesting foods and experiences. (Plenty of Ceviche, Cow Foot Soup, Tripe and more…) – Panama casinos… 5.5% cash check out charge! – Diving 2 oceans on one day! Daylight Savings Time is here! Happy? – Plenty of stories about problems related to the time change… More accidents, less productivity. Really? LINK Prem Watsa, the investor who heads Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. and foretold a drop in technology company shares two years ago, is now saying “I told you so.” In his annual letter to shareholders, Watsa said he expects tech stocks from Twitter Inc. to Yelp Inc. to fall even further — as much as 90 percent from their peak in the last two years. Now calling former UNICORNS = UNICORPSES Weird story – A day after indited on violations of Sherman Act, U.S. shale pioneer Aubrey McClendon dies in suspicious auto accident. — Data shows he hit speeds of 89 miles an hour seconds before his Chevy Tahoe slammed into a concrete bridge earlier this month in a fatal crash, according to a report issued Monday afternoon by the Oklahoma City Police Dept. McClendon’s SUV, which was fitted to run on compressed natural gas instead of gasoline, crossed the center lane more than 60 yards before the crash. He wasn’t wearing a seat belt, the Oklahoma City Police said. Data recovered from the vehicle’s black box showed that McClendon tapped his brakes several times before the crash, but didn’t truly brake hard. His Tahoe hit the bridge at roughly 78 miles an hour. Just as the markets turn, several big brokerages are slashing the year-end price target for S&P 500. Morgan Stanley is the latest with a price target of 2,050. Do we view this as a contrary indicator? OOFAH – The massive rise for some energy and materials companies over the past couple of weeks has been amazing. (and the fall this week) — Past 30 days: Halliburton +22% , Helmrich & Payne +29%, Chesapeake Energy +176%, Marathon Oil +49%, Linn Energy +157%, Continental Resources +43%…. (Some relief as companies get reprieve with advancing oil prices and secondary offerings) Politics: Trump rallies cancelled as violent protests have begun. This is going to be a nightmare… What happened today? Who will drop out? Twitter and social media – how to make sense of the financial world? So many players trying to advance their own agendas… — Afterthefact’ers, toldyouso’ers, vague range gang, complainers, pumpanddump’ers, pompous parade, clickandsell’ers, negative nellies, positive posse… Auto-Upgrade? As Microsoft auto-upgrades more PCs to Windows 10, some users are complaining that they weren’t adequately notified. Reports of unwanted Windows 10 upgrades have been circulating for the past few days on Reddit and Twitter, etc. New trend? After years of relying on the Amazon cloud to store its users’ files, Dropbox has shifted gears and begun using primarily its own technology instead. Japan’s central bank issues statements during their two-day meeting that was a bit of a surprise. While many did not expect any further stimulus actions this meeting, there was also thoughts that there would at least be a some commentary about the potential for something in the future. Not only did they have nothing to say on that matter, there was a clear omission about the negative interest rate policy that led some to believe that they may actually be rethinking the tool . In response, the Yen climbed sharply and that created a negative bias for equities. Yen Rises on Comments ** ANNOUNCING THE FIRST WINNER of the DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest ** Walt Disney (DIS) Tesla (TSLA) and Ford (F) announced as well. Busy couple of weeks – Central banks ! Europe went more negative on deposit rates, ramped up asset purchases and now including some corporate debt. What next? HOOSICK FALLS , NY: More than six weeks after declaring an environmental emergency in this upstate village, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo made his first visit here on Sunday, announcing that a new filter system had successfully cleared a toxic chemical known as PFOA from the municipal water supply. Valeant (VRX) – Stock got crushed after earnings report. While company had a good quarter as compared to analyst estimates, the outlook was very poor – showing a sharp reduction in revenue and earnings. Plus a big write-down of the Philador unit. — How did smart guy like Ackman get bamboozled with this name? (Akman’s Hedge fund estimates are showing a loss of $1 billion+ on today’s plunge) — CEO Pearson is now back after months of “pneumonia” (who has pneumonia for months?) VRX Chart Anyone see the video with the guy urinating into the Rice Crispies? Not a surprise – Chipotle (CMG) posted some nasty numbers – sales down 25%+ See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter