New U.S. home construction fell in December for the first time in four months, despite a sharp drop in mortgage rates.
Housing starts decreased 4.3% last month to an annual rate of 1.46 million units, according to new Commerce Department data released Thursday. Refinitiv economists had projected a pace of 1.42 million units. The decline stemmed from a substantial drop in single-family home construction, which fell by the most since July 2022.
However, applications to build – which measures future construction – rose in December, increasing 1.9% over the course of the month to an annualized rate of 1.49 million units. When compared with the same time last year, building permits are up about 6.1%.
"Building permits, a leading indicator of future construction, accelerated in December as builders expect the housing market to improve as borrowing costs fall," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
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The data comes one day after the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures the pulse of the single-family housing market, rose five points to 44. The increase followed a three-point increase in December.
Any reading below 50 is considered negative.
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"Lower interest rates improved housing affordability conditions this past month, bringing some buyers back into the market after being sidelined in the fall by higher borrowing costs," said Alicia Huey, NAHB chair and a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Alabama.
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Sentiment among builders began steadily falling at the end of the summer after mortgage rates shot above 7%, throttling demand among would-be homebuyers. But borrowing costs have retreated over the past two months as many investors believe the Federal Reserve is done with its aggressive interest-rate hike campaign – and will soon pivot to cutting rates.
Rates on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage are currently hovering around 6.66%, according to Freddie Mac, down from a high of 7.79% at the end of October but well above the pre-pandemic average of 3.9%.
The recent decline has prompted a burst of optimism among homebuilders that the worst may be over. However, the housing market is facing new headwinds heading into 2024, including higher prices and shortages of labor and lumber.
