What Happened?
Shares of aircraft leasing company FTAI Aviation (NASDAQ: FTAI) jumped 5.3% in the afternoon session after the major indices rebounded (Nasdaq +2.0%, S&P 500 +2.0%) as President Trump postponed the planned 50% tariff on European Union imports, shifting the start date to July 9, 2025.
Companies with substantial business ties to Europe likely had some relief as the delay reduced near-term cost pressures and preserved cross-border demand.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $119.43, up 4.2% from previous close.
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What The Market Is Telling Us
FTAI Aviation’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 55 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 6 days ago when the stock dropped 5.5% on the news that the major indices fell further in the afternoon (Nasdaq -1.3%, S&P 500 - 1.4%) as Treasury yields rose, reflecting market anxiety over a draft federal budget that could worsen the already wide US fiscal deficit.
A poor auction for 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds further raised concerns, as weak demand implies investors are becoming more cautious about holding long-dated U.S. debt.
As a reminder, the driver of a stock's value is the sum of its future cash flows discounted back to today. With lower interest rates (yields), investors can apply higher valuations to their stocks; when yields rise, that math works in reverse.
Adding to the cautious mood were earnings results from retail giants Target and Lowe's, both of which reported weak earnings that missed expectations, pointing to a potential slowdown in consumer spending and further weighing on sentiment.
Lastly, some influential voices such as Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan) and Steve Cohen (Point72) made cautious comments about the market, which can sometimes become self-fulfilling prophecies as investors increase their cautiousness and skittishness.
FTAI Aviation is down 17.3% since the beginning of the year, and at $119.43 per share, it is trading 31.7% below its 52-week high of $174.96 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of FTAI Aviation’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $10,225.
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