1 Surging Stock to Target This Week and 2 to Think Twice About

CBRL Cover Image

Great things are happening to the stocks in this article. They’re all outperforming the market over the last month because of positive catalysts such as a new product line, constructive news flow, or even a loyal Reddit fanbase.

However, not all companies with momentum are long-term winners, and many investors have lost money by following short-term trends. Keeping that in mind, here is one stock with the fundamentals to back up its performance and two best left ignored.

Two Momentum Stocks to Sell:

Cracker Barrel (CBRL)

One-Month Return: +10.8%

Known for its country-themed food and merchandise, Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ: CBRL) is a beloved American restaurant and retail chain that celebrates the warmth and charm of Southern hospitality.

Why Do We Pass on CBRL?

  1. Poor same-store sales performance over the past two years indicates it’s having trouble bringing new diners into its restaurants
  2. Sales are projected to remain flat over the next 12 months as demand decelerates from its six-year trend
  3. 5× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio shows it’s overleveraged and increases the probability of shareholder dilution if things turn unexpectedly

Cracker Barrel is trading at $63.12 per share, or 22.7x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including CBRL in your portfolio.

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)

One-Month Return: +23.3%

Spun off from Hilton Worldwide in 2017, Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE: HGV) is a global timeshare company that provides travel experiences for its customers through its timeshare resorts and club membership programs.

Why Does HGV Fall Short?

  1. Lackluster 11.6% annual revenue growth over the last two years indicates the company is losing ground to competitors
  2. Performance over the past five years shows its incremental sales were much less profitable, as its earnings per share fell by 5.3% annually
  3. High net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 11× could force the company to raise capital at unfavorable terms if market conditions deteriorate

Hilton Grand Vacations’s stock price of $48.57 implies a valuation ratio of 13.2x forward P/E. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why HGV doesn’t pass our bar.

One Momentum Stock to Buy:

Live Oak Bancshares (LOB)

One-Month Return: +15.9%

Founded during the 2008 financial crisis with a vision to reimagine small business banking through technology, Live Oak Bancshares (NYSE: LOB) is a bank holding company that specializes in providing online banking services and SBA-guaranteed loans to small businesses across targeted industries nationwide.

Why Are We Backing LOB?

  1. Annual net interest income growth of 14.5% over the last four years was superb and indicates its market share increased during this cycle
  2. Additional sales over the last five years increased its profitability as the 59.2% annual growth in its earnings per share outpaced its revenue
  3. Balance sheet strength has increased this cycle as its 11.3% annual tangible book value per share growth over the last five years was exceptional

At $32.49 per share, Live Oak Bancshares trades at 1.3x forward P/B. Is now a good time to buy? Find out in our full research report, it’s free.

Stocks We Like Even More

The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025.

While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we’re homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver’s seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free. Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Find your next big winner with StockStory today

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.

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