Between March 1 and 4, 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran has issued repeated navigation warnings and de facto closure broadcasts over international maritime channels, announcing strict enforcement measures against all vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This critical “global energy and trade artery” has become effectively closed, triggering severe turbulence in the global shipping market and rapidly spreading supply chain risks worldwide.As of March 4, approximately 170 container ships have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, with a combined capacity of around 450,000 TEU — accounting for 1.4% of the world’s total container capacity. Meanwhile, more than 150 oil tankers and LNG carriers have anchored in safe waters outside the Gulf, waiting at anchor. Regional shipping traffic has plummeted by over 70% within 48 hours, and in some periods, nearly no vessels were permitted to pass.

The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has raised the threat level for the Strait of Hormuz to its highest category, clearly stating that the waterway no longer meets safe commercial navigation conditions.Faced with unprecedented security risks, major global shipping lines have issued urgent operational adjustments, as the industry enters full risk‑aversion mode. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), the world’s largest container carrier, has suspended all new bookings to the Middle East globally until further notice. It has also ordered all vessels operating in or bound for the Persian Gulf to divert immediately to designated safe havens, effectively cutting off regular logistics access to Middle East routes. France’s CMA CGM has taken similar tough measures: it ordered all its ships in the Gulf to seek shelter nearby, suspended passages through the Suez Canal for affected services, and rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. The line has also imposed emergency crisis surcharges on Middle East cargo — up to USD 2,000 per 20‑foot dry container and USD 3,000 per 40‑foot dry container — further pushing up transportation costs. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO Shipping Lines, and other major carriers have all suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessel rerouting, waiting, and sheltering have become industry‑wide standard responses.

Parallel to the shipping standstill, the marine war risk insurance market has seen a historic surge in premiums, adding another heavy burden to Middle East trade. Data from Marsh, one of the world’s largest insurance brokers, shows that war risk premiums for hull and machinery in the Persian Gulf have jumped by 25%–50% in a short period, with even steeper increases for high‑risk voyages. For a large container vessel valued at USD 150 million, the one‑off war risk premium for passing through the Strait of Hormuz has surged from pre‑crisis levels of around USD 375,000 to over USD 750,000. Some vessels associated with specific countries are even facing difficulties obtaining coverage at any price. The sharp rise in insurance costs has made regular operations commercially unviable, forcing shipowners and shippers to abandon routine passages.

Under these combined shocks, Middle East trade routes are trapped in a triple crisis: serious delays, forced rerouting, and skyrocketing freight rates. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 7–10 days of sailing time, drastically increasing fuel and labor costs. Key Middle Eastern ports are facing operational slowdowns or standstills, with indefinite delays in loading and unloading. Spot freight rates have jumped by up to 50% in a single day and continue to rise. For foreign trade enterprises, stable transportation solutions on Middle East routes have essentially disappeared, and normal logistics plans have been completely disrupted.In response to the crisis, industry organizations and logistics experts have issued urgent recommendations:

• Immediately suspend new bookings on Middle East routes and postpone planned shipments.
• For cargo already in transit, proactively coordinate with carriers for alternative routings, prioritizing the Red Sea–Suez Canal corridor to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
• Recalculate full transportation and insurance costs, and clearly include “war risk and routing adjustment surcharges” in quotations to define cost boundaries and allocate risks.
• Communicate openly with overseas customers about potential delays, adjust delivery schedules, and prevent contractual disputes.

This Strait of Hormuz shipping crisis represents another major shock to global supply chains, following the Red Sea crisis — with wider reach and stronger impact. As tensions continue to deteriorate with no immediate de‑escalation in sight, further disruptions to global shipping, energy markets, and international trade are expected. Foreign trade companies are advised to closely monitor developments, prepare for a prolonged period of volatility, and adjust market strategies and logistics plans flexibly to minimize risk and losses.

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