Beer company Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales falling 11.3% year on year to $2.30 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.50 per share was 37.2% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Molson Coors (TAP) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.30 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.43 billion (11.3% year-on-year decline, 5.1% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.50 vs analyst expectations of $0.80 (37.2% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $353.3 million vs analyst estimates of $419.1 million (15.3% margin, 15.7% miss)
- Operating Margin: 8.1%, down from 12.1% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow was -$264.6 million compared to -$187.6 million in the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes fell 15.6% year on year (5.7% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $11.53 billion
Company Overview
Sporting an impressive roster of iconic beer brands, Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP) is a global brewing giant with a rich history dating back more than two centuries.
Sales Growth
A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years.
With $11.33 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, Molson Coors is one of the larger consumer staples companies and benefits from a well-known brand that influences purchasing decisions. However, its scale is a double-edged sword because there are only a finite number of major retail partners, placing a ceiling on its growth. To expand meaningfully, Molson Coors likely needs to tweak its prices, innovate with new products, or enter new markets.
As you can see below, Molson Coors’s sales grew at a sluggish 2.3% compounded annual growth rate over the last three years as consumers bought less of its products. We’ll explore what this means in the "Volume Growth" section.
This quarter, Molson Coors missed Wall Street’s estimates and reported a rather uninspiring 11.3% year-on-year revenue decline, generating $2.30 billion of revenue.
Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 3% over the next 12 months, similar to its three-year rate. This projection is underwhelming and indicates its newer products will not catalyze better top-line performance yet.
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Volume Growth
Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful staples business as there’s a ceiling to what consumers will pay for everyday goods; they can always trade down to non-branded products if the branded versions are too expensive.
Molson Coors’s average quarterly sales volumes have shrunk by 3.2% over the last two years. This decrease isn’t ideal because the quantity demanded for consumer staples products is typically stable. 
In Molson Coors’s Q1 2025, sales volumes dropped 15.6% year on year. This result represents a further deceleration from its historical levels, showing the business is struggling to move its products.
Key Takeaways from Molson Coors’s Q1 Results
We struggled to find many positives in these results. Its revenue missed significantly and its EBITDA fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this was a weaker quarter. The stock traded down 3.2% to $54.97 immediately following the results.
The latest quarter from Molson Coors’s wasn’t that good. One earnings report doesn’t define a company’s quality, though, so let’s explore whether the stock is a buy at the current price. We think that the latest quarter is only one piece of the longer-term business quality puzzle. Quality, when combined with valuation, can help determine if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.
