What Happened?
Shares of fertility benefits company Progyny (NASDAQ: PGNY) fell 22% in the afternoon session after it issued a weak financial outlook for 2026 that overshadowed its fourth-quarter results.
The company's guidance for the first quarter of 2026 projected revenue of $325.5 million, falling 5.1% short of Wall Street's expectations. Furthermore, the full-year forecast for 2026 was also disappointing, with both its adjusted earnings per share and EBITDA guidance missing analyst estimates. This downbeat forecast soured investor sentiment despite Progyny reporting strong fourth-quarter 2025 results. For that period, the company's revenue of $318.4 million grew 6.7% year-over-year and beat expectations, while its adjusted earnings per share of $0.48 came in nearly 20% ahead of consensus estimates. Ultimately, the market focused on the weaker-than-expected projections, signaling concerns about future growth.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Progyny’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 12 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Progyny and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 7 months ago when the stock gained 5.1% on the news that markets continued to rally amid growing speculation of an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Following a favorable Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, investors are increasingly betting on a rate reduction next month, a sentiment amplified by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's call for a significant cut. This has fueled a 'risk-on' environment across Wall Street. Lower interest rates are typically beneficial for growth-oriented sectors like healthcare, as they reduce the cost of borrowing for research and innovation and increase the present value of future earnings.
Progyny is down 32.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $17.47 per share, it is trading 38.5% below its 52-week high of $28.42 from January 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Progyny’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $400.25.
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