3 Reasons DDD is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

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DDD Cover Image

What a brutal six months it’s been for 3D Systems. The stock has dropped 23.3% and now trades at $2.16, rattling many shareholders. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is now the time to buy 3D Systems, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Why Do We Think 3D Systems Will Underperform?

Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're swiping left on 3D Systems for now. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than DDD and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Revenue Spiraling Downwards

A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years. 3D Systems struggled to consistently generate demand over the last five years as its sales dropped at a 7% annual rate. This wasn’t a great result and is a sign of poor business quality.

3D Systems Quarterly Revenue

2. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

ROIC, or return on invested capital, is a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Unfortunately, 3D Systems’s ROIC has decreased significantly over the last few years. Paired with its already low returns, these declines suggest its profitable growth opportunities are few and far between.

3D Systems Trailing 12-Month Return On Invested Capital

3. Short Cash Runway Exposes Shareholders to Potential Dilution

As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.

3D Systems burned through $97.77 million of cash over the last year. With $95.64 million of cash on its balance sheet, the company has around 12 months of runway left (assuming its $90.34 million of debt isn’t due right away).

3D Systems Net Cash Position

Unless the 3D Systems’s fundamentals change quickly, it might find itself in a position where it must raise capital from investors to continue operating. Whether that would be favorable is unclear because dilution is a headwind for shareholder returns.

We remain cautious of 3D Systems until it generates consistent free cash flow or any of its announced financing plans materialize on its balance sheet.

Final Judgment

We cheer for all companies making their customers lives easier, but in the case of 3D Systems, we’ll be cheering from the sidelines. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at $2.16 per share (or a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.7×). The market typically values companies like 3D Systems based on their anticipated profits for the next 12 months, but it expects the business to lose money. We also think the upside isn’t great compared to the potential downside here - there are more exciting stocks to buy. Let us point you toward a safe-and-steady industrials business benefiting from an upgrade cycle.

Stocks We Would Buy Instead of 3D Systems

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