PROG Holdings' first quarter results met Wall Street’s revenue expectations and received a strong positive reaction from the market. Management pointed to robust growth across its ecosystem of products, especially the continued expansion of Four, its buy now, pay later (BNPL) platform, and solid double-digit growth at Purchasing Power. CEO Steve Michaels highlighted that “our model performed as designed” even amid consumer headwinds such as rising gas prices, with the company benefiting from improved economics in its leasing segment and higher customer engagement through its digital channels.
Is now the time to buy PRG? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
PROG (PRG) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
- Revenue: $742.7 million vs analyst estimates of $741.2 million (11.1% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.24 vs analyst estimates of $0.78 (58.1% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $90.29 million vs analyst estimates of $68.47 million (12.2% margin, 31.9% beat)
- The company dropped its revenue guidance for the full year to $3.05 billion at the midpoint from $3.08 billion, a 1% decrease
- Management raised its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $4.60 at the midpoint, a 8.9% increase
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $356.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $333.9 million
- Operating Margin: 14.7%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $1.42 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From PROG’s Q1 Earnings Call
- Kyle Joseph (Stephens) asked about macroeconomic pressures and their impact on different business segments. CEO Steve Michaels explained that while all products serve similar customer profiles, leasing was most affected by tax refund season and gas prices, but strong portfolio management helped offset headwinds.
- Robert Griffin (Raymond James) questioned the implications of fewer customers exercising the 90-day buyout option for lease agreements. Michaels and CFO Brian Garner indicated that customers staying in leases longer has historically been margin positive, with current trends suggesting improved portfolio health.
- Hoang Nguyen (TD Cowen) inquired about progress on cross-selling synergies between leasing and Purchasing Power. Michaels said integration efforts are underway, with early conversations leveraging retailer and employer relationships, but noted it is early in the process.
- Anthony Chukumba (Loop Capital Markets) asked about the drivers behind Four’s margin expansion. Michaels cited greater scale, operational efficiency, and aggressive use of AI, along with a stable take rate and low churn, as key contributors.
- Bradley Thomas (KeyBanc Capital Markets) sought clarity on whether Progressive Leasing’s GMV growth indicated a lasting inflection. Michaels and Garner responded that improving trends are expected to continue as portfolio headwinds subside, with digital channel strength and new retail partnerships providing additional tailwinds.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In future quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) whether Progressive Leasing’s GMV growth continues as portfolio headwinds fade, (2) the pace of cross-product integration and resulting customer engagement across Four, Purchasing Power, and leasing, and (3) the sustained impact of AI-driven enhancements on conversion rates and operational efficiency. Execution on these strategic priorities, along with signs of resilient consumer demand, will be critical markers of progress.
PROG currently trades at $35.53, up from $28.88 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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