What a fantastic six months it’s been for Timken. Shares of the company have skyrocketed 63.4%, setting a new 52-week high of $141. This was partly thanks to its solid quarterly results, and the performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
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Why Do We Think Timken Will Underperform?
We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we’re sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons why there are better opportunities than TKR, plus one stock we’d rather own.
1. Core Business Falling Behind as Demand Declines
Investors interested in Engineered Components and Systems companies should track organic revenue in addition to reported revenue. This metric gives visibility into Timken’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.
Over the last two years, Timken’s organic revenue averaged 1.6% year-on-year declines. This performance was underwhelming and implies it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy. It also suggests Timken might have to lean into acquisitions to grow, which isn’t ideal because M&A can be expensive and risky (integrations often disrupt focus). 
2. EPS Barely Growing
We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) because it highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.
Timken’s unimpressive 5.1% annual EPS growth over the last five years aligns with its revenue performance. This tells us it maintained its per-share profitability as it expanded.
3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines
A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
On average, Timken’s ROIC decreased by 3.1 percentage points annually each year over the last few years. We like what management has done in the past, but its declining returns are perhaps a symptom of fewer profitable growth opportunities.
Final Judgment
We cheer for all companies making their customers lives easier, but in the case of Timken, we’ll be cheering from the sidelines. After the recent surge, the stock trades at 23× forward P/E (or $141 per share). This valuation tells us it’s a bit of a market darling with a lot of good news priced in - we think there are better opportunities elsewhere. We’d suggest looking at a dominant aerospace business that has perfected its M&A strategy.
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