Starbucks Stock: Is SBUX Underperforming the Consumer Discretionary Sector?

Seattle, Washington-based Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) roasts, sells and distributes high-quality coffee globally. Valued at $111.6 billion by market cap, the company offers packaged and single-serve coffees and teas, beverage-related ingredients, and ready-to-drink beverages, as well as produces and sells bottled coffee drinks and a line of ice creams through over 40,000 stores worldwide under the brands Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve.

Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally described as “large-cap stocks,” and SBUX definitely fits that description, with its market cap exceeding this threshold, reflecting its substantial size, influence, and dominance in the restaurants industry. SBUX's strong brand drives growth, coupled with its innovative "Green Apron Service" that boosts customer loyalty. With over 41,000 stores globally, its diverse footprint and international presence fuel market dominance.

 

Despite its notable strength, SBUX slipped 16.5% from its 52-week high of $117.46, achieved on Mar. 3, 2025. Over the past three months, SBUX stock gained 13.1%, outperforming Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLYmarginal dip during the same time frame.

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Shares of SBUX rose 16.5% on a YTD basis, outperforming XLY’s YTD losses of 2%. However, in the longer term, the stock dipped 13.2% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming XLY’s 8.6% returns over the last year.

To confirm the bullish trend, SBUX has been trading above its 200-day moving average since early January. The stock is trading above its 50-day moving average since early November, 2025, with some fluctuations. 

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Trump's new tariffs sparked trade uncertainty, hitting SBUX's stock. The Supreme Court's ruling on IEEPA initially boosted markets, but the tariffs raised concerns about disrupted trade, slower growth, and higher prices affecting SBUX’s performance.

On Jan. 28, SBUX shares closed down marginally after reporting its Q1 results. Its adjusted EPS of $0.56 fell short of Wall Street expectations of $0.58. The company’s revenue was $9.9 billion, beating Wall Street forecasts of $9.6 billion. SBUX expects full-year adjusted EPS in the range of $2.15 to $2.40.

In the competitive arena of restaurants, Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY) has lagged behind SBUX, showing resilience with a 7.7% uptick on a YTD basis, but outpaced the stock with a 23% gain over the past 52 weeks.

Wall Street analysts are reasonably bullish on SBUX’s prospects. The stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating from the 35 analysts covering it. While SBUX currently trades above its mean price target of $97.91, the Street-high price target of $120 suggests a 22.3% upside potential.


On the date of publication, Neha Panjwani did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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