3 Reasons to Avoid XPRO and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

XPRO Cover Image

Expro’s 35.8% return over the past six months has outpaced the S&P 500 by 33.3%, and its stock price has climbed to $16.88 per share. This run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.

Is there a buying opportunity in Expro, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it’s free.

Why Is Expro Not Exciting?

Despite the momentum, we don't have much confidence in Expro. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than XPRO and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Fewer Distribution Channels Limit its Ceiling

The scale of a company’s revenue base is an important lens through which to view the topline, as it signals whether a producer has gone from a vulnerable commodity taker into a durable operating platform. Larger producers generate revenue across many wells, pads, takeaway routes, and geographies rather than relying on a single field or drilling program.

Expro’s $1.61 billion of revenue in the last year is pretty small for the industry, suggesting the company is subscale business in an industry where scale matters.

2. Low Gross Margin Reveals Weak Structural Profitability

In a single quarter or year, gross margins in the sector can swing wildly due to commodity prices, hedging, or changes in labor costs. Over a multi-year period across different points in the cycle, gross margin differences can signal whether a company is a structurally-advantaged producer (“rock” quality, takeaway, operating costs) or not.

Expro, which averaged 19.9% gross margin over the last five years, exhibiting bottom-tier unit economics in the sector. It means the company will struggle at higher commodity prices than peers with better gross margins. Expro Trailing 12-Month Gross Margin

3. Mediocre Free Cash Flow Margin Limits Reinvestment Potential

Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.

Expro has shown poor cash profitability relative to peers over the last five years, giving the company fewer opportunities to return capital to shareholders. Its free cash flow margin averaged 1%, below what we’d expect for an upstream and integrated energy business.

Expro Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow Margin

Final Judgment

Expro isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares beating the market recently, the stock trades at 17.3× forward P/E (or $16.88 per share). Investors with a higher risk tolerance might like the company, but we think the potential downside is too great. We're pretty confident there are more exciting stocks to buy at the moment. We’d suggest looking at one of our top software and edge computing picks.

Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Expro

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