3 Reasons HSIC is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

HSIC Cover Image

Over the past six months, Henry Schein has been a great trade, beating the S&P 500 by 17.3%. Its stock price has climbed to $75.99, representing a healthy 19.9% increase. This was partly due to its solid quarterly results, and the run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.

Is there a buying opportunity in Henry Schein, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Check out our in-depth research report to see what our analysts have to say, it’s free.

Why Is Henry Schein Not Exciting?

We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we're swiping left on Henry Schein for now. Here are three reasons you should be careful with HSIC and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Slow Organic Growth Suggests Waning Demand In Core Business

In addition to reported revenue, organic revenue is a useful data point for analyzing Dental Equipment & Technology companies. This metric gives visibility into Henry Schein’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.

Over the last two years, Henry Schein’s organic revenue averaged 1.3% year-on-year growth. This performance was underwhelming and suggests it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy, which can add an extra layer of complexity to its operations. Henry Schein Organic Revenue Growth

2. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim

Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.

Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Henry Schein’s revenue to rise by 4%, close to its 5.4% annualized growth for the past five years. This projection is underwhelming and suggests its newer products and services will not lead to better top-line performance yet.

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

ROIC, or return on invested capital, is a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Unfortunately, Henry Schein’s ROIC has decreased over the last few years. We like what management has done in the past, but its declining returns are perhaps a symptom of fewer profitable growth opportunities.

Henry Schein Trailing 12-Month Return On Invested Capital

Final Judgment

Henry Schein’s business quality ultimately falls short of our standards. With its shares outperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 14.2× forward P/E (or $75.99 per share). This valuation is reasonable, but the company’s shakier fundamentals present too much downside risk. We're pretty confident there are more exciting stocks to buy at the moment. We’d recommend looking at the most dominant software business in the world.

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